India Monsoon Deficit 2026: 30% Rainfall Shortfall Hits Kharif Sowing

Monsoon 2026 Opens With Severe Rainfall Shortfall

India received only 131.4 mm of rainfall between 4 June and 4 July 2026, compared with the long-period average of 188.5 mm. This represents a 30% deficit, placing the country in the IMD’s “deficient” category (20–59% below LPA). June 2026 alone delivered 99.5 mm, roughly 40% below normal, making it the fifth-driest June since records began in 1901.

Regional Rainfall Extremes Across India

East and northeast India recorded their lowest June rainfall totals in the observational record. Central India experienced its seventh-driest June on record. Not a single low-pressure system formed over the Indian region during the entire month. Delhi, meanwhile, received just 41.8 mm against a normal of 74.1 mm; the monsoon finally arrived on 2 July, five days late and the first July arrival since 2021.

Atmospheric Drivers Behind the Dry Spell

The Madden-Julian Oscillation remained in an unfavourable phase throughout June, suppressing convection. Simultaneously, lingering El Niño conditions in the Pacific weakened the cross-equatorial monsoon flow. These factors combined to prevent the usual formation of monsoon low-pressure systems that normally bring widespread rain to the Indo-Gangetic plains and central India.

Kharif Sowing Window Under Pressure

July is climatologically India’s wettest month, with an average of 280.4 mm expected. The IMD has forecast July 2026 rainfall to remain below 94% of the long-period average. This period coincides with the main sowing window for paddy, pulses, oilseeds and cotton across states from Punjab to Tamil Nadu and from Rajasthan to West Bengal. Delayed or deficient rains directly threaten acreage and eventual production.

Ministry of Agriculture and PM Modi Response

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has directed the Ministries of Agriculture, Water Resources and Rural Development to prepare district-level contingency plans. The Ministry of Agriculture is activating seed and fertiliser buffer stocks and reviewing drought-proofing measures under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana. Officials are monitoring reservoir levels in the 150 major reservoirs tracked by the Central Water Commission.

Food Inflation and Macroeconomic Risks

A deficient monsoon raises the prospect of lower kharif output, which accounts for roughly half of India’s annual foodgrain production. Reduced paddy and pulse harvests could exert upward pressure on retail prices, complicating the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation-targeting framework. States with high rural populations, including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra, face the greatest exposure to both farm-income loss and rising input costs.

Outlook and Possible Recovery

IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra noted that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, currently developing, could strengthen monsoon circulation from late August onward. Historical analogues suggest that a strong positive IOD has previously offset El Niño effects during August–September. The IMD continues to classify the season as “below normal” overall, with weekly and monthly updates expected through the remainder of the monsoon period.

The current deficit underscores the need for accelerated adoption of drought-resistant varieties and micro-irrigation under existing central schemes. For India’s 140 million farm households, timely policy execution will determine whether the 2026 kharif season remains manageable or slips into widespread distress.