AI Is Ending the Era of 'Job Immunity' for Young Tech Workers, Taub Center Study Finds

AI Is Ending the Era of 'Job Immunity' for Young Tech Workers, Taub Center Study Finds

A comprehensive study by the Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel has found that artificial intelligence is fundamentally reshaping the country's labor market — and the workers most affected are not those in manual trades, but young professionals in fields that once enjoyed near-total job security.

Researchers Michael Debowy, Prof. Gil Epstein, and Prof. Avi Weiss examined unemployment data between 2022 and 2025 and found that while AI's impact on overall unemployment remains limited, the composition of who becomes unemployed has shifted dramatically. Occupations that previously enjoyed strong demand and low layoff rates are now seeing the most pronounced increases in relative unemployment.

"The era of hi-tech workers' immunity is over," said Epstein, head of the labor market policy program at the Taub Center. "Our data shows that AI is ripping the cards. It explains about a fifth of the increase in programmer unemployment and locks the door mainly on young people."

Young Workers Hit Hardest as Employers Seek Experience

The study reveals a growing preference for experienced workers. AI enables highly skilled professionals to become significantly more productive, shifting demand away from those at the beginning of their careers. This mirrors trends observed in the United States, where a 13% decline in employment among workers aged 22 to 25 in automation-risk occupations has been documented, while older, more experienced workers remained largely unaffected.

"While veteran staffers become more efficient with the help of the machine, the 'juniors' are the first to pay the price," Epstein warned. "Those who wait for a change and don't rush to upgrade their skills here and now will simply be left behind."

Among software developers, AI accounts for between 12% and 20% of the increase in unemployment recorded between 2022 and 2025. For sales representatives, the figure ranges from 10% to 26%. In both cases, the effect reflects not only a decline in vacancies but also a shift in skill requirements that has made it harder to match unemployed workers to available jobs.

Who Is at Risk — and Who Isn't

Ironically, the study suggests that lower-status blue-collar workers whose jobs involve hands-on interaction — barbers, plumbers, electricians, firefighters, garbage collectors, midwives, landscape artists, emergency medical technicians, and acupuncturists — are likely to see less disruption from AI.

However, the occupations at high risk include bookkeepers, lawyers and paralegals, lower-ranking market research analysts, clerks and administrators, cashiers, sales representatives, warehouse and factory workers, fast-food and restaurant staff, non-specialized physicians, researchers, computer scientists, drivers, public relations specialists, and even actors and actresses who could be replaced by virtual characters.

The researchers found that between 2019 and 2022, workers in high-risk occupations accounted for 14% to 16% of all unemployed Israelis. By 2025, that share had risen to 20% to 25%.

Vacancies Persist, But Competition Intensifies

A critical finding of the study is that even in occupations where the number of vacancies has remained relatively stable, competition for each position has intensified. More skilled unemployed workers are now competing for each opening, forcing job seekers to present higher levels of experience and skill than in the past.

Debowy told The Jerusalem Post that the shift is not driven by AI alone. "It also reflects structural factors such as the slowdown in the hi-tech sector, the growing share of digital-age occupations at risk of automation, and the partial regression from structural changes brought about by the COVID-19 crisis." He noted that AI still accounts for a modest share of the overall change compared to these other factors.

On the question of robotics in manufacturing, Debowy added: "The process of robots pushing people into unemployment is slower than generative AI because of the high cost of implementing their use, but in the end, this does have an impact. In Israel, traditional local manufacturing has needed fewer hands because of robots — a third of such workers have been replaced in recent years."

Policy Implications and the Road Ahead

Weiss, president of the Taub Center, emphasized that the findings carry clear policy implications. "Technology is not only replacing working hands but is completely changing the rules of the game," he said. "The meaning for the unemployed is that competition for existing jobs is becoming much tougher, and those who don't adapt their skills to the AI era may find themselves pushed out."

He called on the state to activate assistance systems for the newly unemployed and design retraining programs that provide skills complementary to artificial intelligence. "We must enable them to reintegrate into the changing labor market," Weiss said.

Despite the disruption, Debowy offered a cautiously optimistic view. "Some people will be unemployed, but others will be hired for new professions. Some will benefit, and some will lose. The situation is in flux. There will be a new balance."

On the subject of public sector employment, he noted that the sector "reacts slower because it doesn't depend on market forces but rather the decisions of political leaders. We don't know where public service will go."

As for education, the researchers found no evidence that AI has caused unemployment among teachers — largely because Israel is currently experiencing a severe shortage of educators, and the system is far from replacing them with virtual instruction.

A Warning for Israel's Hi-Tech Economy

The study serves as an early warning for Israel's hi-tech sector, which accounts for a significant share of the country's economic output and exports. The findings suggest that the very workers who powered Israel's "Start-Up Nation" reputation are now among the most vulnerable to technological displacement.

Overall unemployment in Israel remains stable, the researchers emphasized. But the nature of the labor market is changing, and the composition of the unemployed has shifted. AI already explains between 2% and 6% of the change in the occupational distribution of the unemployed — a number that is likely to grow as the technology continues to advance.

By Hannah Berg, Staff Writer