Nomura Raises Annual Profit Target 50% After Record Year, Betting on AI-Driven Platforms and Digital Assets

Nomura Holdings, Japan’s largest brokerage by market share, announced on October 15 that it has lifted its medium-term pretax profit target by 50 percent to at least ¥750 billion ($4.7 billion) for the fiscal year ending March 2031. The revision follows a record ¥498 billion in pretax income posted for the year ended March 2025, driven by surging retail trading volumes and a surge in cross-border M&A advisory mandates.

Record Performance Sets New Baseline

The brokerage’s fiscal 2025 results exceeded the prior target of ¥500 billion by nearly 20 percent. Retail brokerage revenue climbed 34 percent year-on-year to ¥312 billion, while the wholesale division contributed ¥186 billion, reflecting a 41 percent increase in equity underwriting fees. These figures were supported by a 28 percent rise in average daily trading value on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which reached ¥4.9 trillion during the period.

Executives attributed part of the outperformance to Nomura’s ongoing technology investments. The firm’s proprietary AI trading engine, deployed across its equities desk in Tokyo and New York, handled 37 percent of algorithmic flow in the most recent quarter, up from 19 percent two years earlier.

Strategic Roadmap to ¥750 Billion

The new five-year plan allocates an additional ¥120 billion in technology and digital infrastructure spending through March 2030. Key initiatives include expanding Nomura’s wealth-management super-app, which now serves 2.1 million active users, and deepening integration of generative AI tools for personalized portfolio construction. The company expects these platforms to lift assets under custody by ¥18 trillion to ¥142 trillion by the target year.

International operations are also slated for digital upgrades. Nomura plans to launch a blockchain-based settlement network for Asian equity and fixed-income trades by 2028, aiming to reduce post-trade costs by 23 percent. The firm has already partnered with two Singaporean fintech startups to pilot real-time cross-border payment rails linked to its Japanese client base.

Technology as Core Growth Driver

Unlike previous medium-term plans that emphasized cost cuts, the updated strategy places technology at the center. Nomura’s AI research division, established in 2022, now employs 480 data scientists and engineers, a headcount increase of 65 percent in two years. Early deployments have improved trade execution quality by an estimated 14 basis points on large block orders, according to internal metrics.

The brokerage is also accelerating its push into digital assets. A newly formed crypto desk began offering Bitcoin and Ether derivatives to institutional clients in September 2025. Management projects this unit will generate ¥35 billion in revenue by fiscal 2029, assuming regulatory clarity from Japan’s Financial Services Agency.

Market Context and Peer Comparison

Nomura’s revised ambitions arrive amid a broader rally in Japanese equities. The Nikkei 225 has gained 47 percent over the past 18 months, supported by the Bank of Japan’s gradual exit from negative interest rates. Daiwa Securities, Nomura’s closest domestic rival, raised its own pretax target to ¥210 billion last month, still less than one-third of Nomura’s new goal.

Globally, Nomura continues to trail bulge-bracket peers in return on equity. Its fiscal 2025 ROE stood at 11.8 percent, compared with 14.2 percent at Morgan Stanley and 13.9 percent at Goldman Sachs. The technology-heavy investment plan is explicitly designed to close this gap by fiscal 2031.

Analyst and Industry Perspectives

“Nomura is finally treating its technology stack as a profit center rather than a cost center,” said Hiroko Sato, senior financial analyst at JPMorgan Securities Japan. “If the AI execution tools and digital-asset franchise scale as projected, the ¥750 billion target becomes achievable even in a flat market environment.”

Some observers remain cautious. Takeshi Nakamura, professor of financial engineering at the University of Tokyo, noted that regulatory hurdles around cross-border data flows and crypto custody could delay rollout timelines by 12 to 18 months. “Execution risk is real,” he said.

Implications for Investors and the Broader Sector

For Japanese retail investors, the enhanced digital platforms promise lower fees and more sophisticated robo-advisory services. Institutional clients stand to benefit from faster settlement and improved liquidity in Asian markets once the blockchain network launches. Nomura’s shares rose 6.3 percent on the day of the announcement, outperforming the TOPIX brokerage index by 210 basis points.

The move also signals a potential acceleration of consolidation among Japan’s regional brokerages. Smaller players lacking comparable technology budgets may seek partnerships or acquisition by larger groups, a trend already visible in three recent tie-ups announced since July.

Longer term, Nomura’s pivot illustrates how traditional financial institutions in Japan are racing to embed advanced analytics and distributed-ledger technology into core operations. Success here could reshape competitive dynamics across Asia’s capital markets well before 2031.

This is Kenji Tanaka for Global1 News, reporting from Tokyo. 🇯🇵