Oil Price Rollback Highly Possible Next Week, Says DOE

DOE Monitors Global Crude Decline

The Department of Energy confirmed on Friday that a rollback in pump prices is highly probable when oil companies adjust rates next week. DOE spokesperson Vivencio Dizon cited a sustained drop in global benchmark crudes and a steadier peso as the primary drivers. Current monitoring shows Brent crude trading below $78 per barrel, down from $84 just ten days ago. This movement gives local refiners room to reduce retail prices without eroding margins.

Recent Price Trends in the Philippines

Filipino motorists have absorbed three consecutive weeks of increases. Diesel rose by a total of ₱2.35 per liter, while gasoline climbed ₱1.80. Kerosene, used heavily in rural areas for lighting and cooking, added ₱1.10. These hikes followed a brief period of stability in late September when the peso strengthened momentarily against the dollar. The DOE’s weekly monitoring bulletin, released every Monday, now projects possible reductions of ₱1.00 to ₱1.50 for diesel and ₱0.80 to ₱1.20 for gasoline starting October 14.

Independent station owners interviewed in Quezon City and Cebu City reported that inventory purchased at higher costs is nearly depleted. This timing allows the next pricing cycle to reflect the latest global dip more fully. The DOE stressed that the rollback is not guaranteed until final international settlements close on Sunday evening Manila time.

Global and Local Factors Behind the Shift

Three converging elements explain the projected relief. First, OPEC+ members signaled higher output quotas for November, easing supply concerns that had pushed prices upward in September. Second, weaker industrial data from China reduced demand forecasts, pressuring futures markets downward. Third, the Philippine peso gained two centavos against the dollar this week, trimming the landed cost of imported crude. The DOE’s price model assigns roughly 60 percent weight to international benchmarks and 25 percent to the exchange rate, with the balance covering taxes, shipping, and refinery margins.

Excise taxes under the TRAIN law remain fixed at ₱6.00 per liter for diesel and ₱10.00 for gasoline. These levies do not adjust automatically with market prices, so any rollback passes directly to consumers. The DOE noted that without the peso’s improvement, the global crude decline alone would have produced only half the expected cut.

Impact on Households and Transport Sector

A ₱1.20 reduction in diesel translates to savings of roughly ₱240 per month for a typical tricycle driver logging 200 kilometers daily. For public utility jeepney operators, the same cut trims daily fuel expense by ₱60–80, amounts that can stabilize fares amid persistent inflation. Consumer group Laban Konsyumer welcomed the signal but urged oil firms to avoid rounding adjustments that erode part of the benefit.

Economist Rafaelita Aldaba of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies warned that transport cost reductions must reach food logistics to ease overall inflation. “A sustained ₱1 rollback can shave 0.15 percentage points off headline inflation within two months if passed through the supply chain,” she said. Rice, vegetables, and fish prices in Metro Manila markets have risen 4.2 percent year-on-year, partly due to earlier fuel costs.

Industry and Expert Perspectives

Petron Corporation and Shell Philippines both stated they will follow DOE guidance and adjust prices in line with international references. An industry source, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that refiners have already locked in cargoes at lower rates for the coming fortnight. “The market is signaling relief; we have no incentive to delay the adjustment,” the source said.

Energy analyst Jose Logarta Jr. highlighted geopolitical risks that could reverse the trend. “Any escalation in the Middle East or unexpected OPEC+ discipline could erase these gains within days,” he noted. Logarta added that the Philippines’ heavy reliance on imported finished products, rather than crude, makes local prices more sensitive to weekly spot movements than in crude-producing nations.

Policy Context and Long-Term Outlook

The DOE continues to push for faster adoption of the E10 gasoline blend and higher biodiesel mandates to reduce import dependence. These measures, once fully implemented, could dampen price volatility by 8–12 percent, according to internal simulations. Meanwhile, the agency is coordinating with the Department of Transportation to accelerate fleet modernization programs that favor more fuel-efficient engines.

Opposition lawmakers renewed calls for a temporary suspension of excise taxes on diesel whenever prices exceed ₱60 per liter. The DOE responded that such a move would cost the treasury ₱18 billion annually and is best reserved for genuine supply shocks. Malacañang has so far declined to endorse the proposal, citing fiscal targets agreed with the IMF.

Looking ahead, the DOE will release its full October price bulletin on Monday. Motorists and small businesses are advised to monitor accredited station boards rather than social media rumors. The agency reiterated its commitment to transparent, data-driven advisories that protect ordinary Filipinos from unnecessary cost burdens.

This is Bella Reyes for Global1 News, reporting from Manila. 🇵🇭