Israel Elections 2026: Likud Turmoil and Netanyahu Fate

In a recent i24NEWS English report, correspondent Balig Sladeen broke down the high-stakes dynamics of the upcoming October 27th Israeli elections, the first national vote since the October 7, 2023 massacre. The report zeroes in on the internal Likud battles over reserved Knesset slots, a mechanism that has sparked a full-blown rebellion within the party's grassroots ahead of the primaries. With the Knesset having dissolved itself on July 17, the race to form the 26th Knesset and the coalition that will succeed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 37th government is now entering its most volatile phase.

Netanyahu's Reserved Slots and the Likud Civil War Ahead of October 27 Elections

Jerusalem, Israel - The road to the October 27 national elections is being paved with internal political landmines, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to hand-pick eight reserved slots on the Likud list has ignited a firestorm within the party. The move, approved by the Likud Central Committee in July, grants Netanyahu authority over positions 3, 5, 9, 11, 15, 18, 26, and 29 on the slate, plus one additional spot for the defense minister. This marks a significant escalation in the leader's control over the party's candidate roster, a practice that did not exist before 2013, when Netanyahu was given just two reserved slots, and five in 2022.

A Historic Full Term and an Unusual Campaign

The 25th Knesset made history by becoming the first since 1988 to complete its full four-year term without early dissolution, and the first in nearly 40 years to hold elections on their originally scheduled date. This stability, however, masks nearly three years of unprecedented turbulence: the ongoing war in Gaza, the conflict with Hezbollah on the northern border, direct military exchanges with Iran during the 2026 war, hostage negotiations, judicial reform debates, and mounting economic pressures. The Knesset officially voted to dissolve itself on July 17, 2026, setting the stage for an election that will determine the fate of 120 seats and the coalition that will succeed the current government.

Political parties must finalize and submit their candidate lists by September 7, less than two months before Election Day. The electoral threshold stands at 3.25% of the national vote, and a coalition will need 61 of 120 seats to govern. The Bader-Ofer method will allocate seats proportionally, a system that has historically favored larger parties and made the threshold a brutal culling ground for smaller factions. This election cycle, the stakes are existential for several parties polling below the threshold, including Benny Gantz's Blue and White at a mere 0.8% and Yuli Edelstein and Gilad Erdan's new party at 1.3%.

The Likud List: Reserved Slots and Internal Turmoil

The most explosive development in the campaign has been Netanyahu's use of his reserved slots. On August 11-12, Netanyahu requested reserved positions for Defense Minister Israel Katz, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, and Health Minister Haim Katz, who also serves as the Likud Central Committee chairman. The Likud court unanimously approved the slots for Israel Katz and Saar on Tuesday, August 11, but issued an interim order blocking the Haim Katz vote due to a conflict of interest—he chairs both the Constitution Committee and the Secretariat. By Wednesday, August 12, the court approved Haim Katz by a majority after he had registered for the primaries and begun campaigning, finding that party rules allow the chairman to use allotted slots to shape a slate representing different constituencies.

The rationale for the defense minister slot was explicit: allow Israel Katz to focus on security needs rather than engage in politics at this time. The Saar slot was framed as part of the unification agreement between his New Hope-United Right Party and Likud, which merged in 2025. But the first non-incumbent reserved slot went to Oren Dobronsky, a high-tech entrepreneur and Channel 12 Shark Tank panelist, announced Monday night. Dobronsky is expected to lead AI integration across the economy and public sector, including education, medicine, and the economy. His quote captures the campaign's tech-forward messaging: "If we were until now the Startup Nation, we must concern ourselves with also becoming the AI Nation."

Grassroots Rebellion and the Specter of a Split

The reserved slots have triggered a fierce backlash from rank-and-file Likud members. MK Tally Gotliv, popular with the grassroots, launched a blistering attack on Israel Katz on X, writing: "He is the one who wants to push me out. Israel Katz knows he won't make it to the top 10, and rightly so!! The voters want otherwise, and the voters and only they will decide." She called the defense minister slot a "disgraceful move that mocks Likud voters." MK David Bitan voiced broader concerns in June, warning that "parties that have an arrangements committee factually, their power is weakened or they disappear; it is forbidden to allow Likud to gravely harm itself, it is forbidden to lose the beating heart that is the grassroots. This could cost us in the elections."

Reports indicate Netanyahu threatened to leave Likud if the proposed changes were not advanced, holding several meetings with Haim Katz to bridge disagreements. The internal strife comes as the party faces a projected decline: recent polls show Likud winning just 22 seats, down from its current 40 ministers and MKs serving in government and Knesset. As many as 15 incumbent Likud members may not retain their seats, a brutal reality that has intensified the fight for safe positions on the list. The Likud primaries are scheduled for August 17, though they may be postponed after a court ruling threatened the timeline; Likud told the Supreme Court a delay could push primaries at least two weeks.

The Polls: A Narrow Path for the Anti-Netanyahu Bloc

Channel 12 polls published Monday, August 10 paint a fragmented picture. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leads with 24 seats (up one), followed by Likud at 22, Naftali Bennett's B Yachad at 15, The Democrats (Yair Golan's Labor-Meretz merger) at 11, Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu at 10, Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) at 8, United Torah Judaism at 8, Shas at 7, Religious Zionist Party (Bezalel Smotrich) at 5, Hadash-Taal at 5, and Raam (Mansour Abbas) at 5. The anti-Netanyahu bloc commands 70 seats (60 Zionist opposition plus 10 Arab parties), while the coalition bloc holds just 50. Below the threshold, The Zionist Home The Reservists (Chili Tropper, Yoaz Hendel) sits at 2.7%, Balad (Sami Abu Shehadeh) at 1.6%, and Edelstein and Erdan's party at 1.3%.

The numbers suggest a viable path for an alternative coalition, but the fragmentation of the opposition remains a critical vulnerability. Eisenkot's rise reflects public fatigue with the current government's handling of the war and its aftermath, while Bennett's B Yachad continues to draw from the center-right. The Democrats' 11 seats under Yolan's leadership signal a consolidation of the left, but the Arab parties' 10 seats remain essential to any anti-Netanyahu coalition, a politically fraught proposition for many Zionist opposition leaders. The Likud's 22 seats, while second, represent a significant drop from its current standing, and the internal battles over the list could further erode its support.

Regional Dynamics and the Security Imperative

The election is unfolding against a backdrop of profound regional instability. The war in Gaza continues to shape Israeli security doctrine, while the northern front with Hezbollah remains tense despite the 2026 ceasefire. Direct military exchanges with Iran during the 2026 war have fundamentally altered the strategic calculus, with the IDF and Shin Bet operating under unprecedented pressure. The hostage negotiations remain a live issue, with families of captives pressing the government for a deal. These security imperatives are why Netanyahu's decision to reserve a slot for Defense Minister Israel Katz was framed as a matter of national security—allowing him to focus on defense rather than politics at this time.

The campaign has also seen significant realignments. Smotrich has declared he will not ally with Ben-Gvir in 2026, a split that could fragment the religious Zionist vote. Gilad Erdan launched a new Unity Party, while an ex-Yesh Atid MK is in talks to join an Arab party slate. The Tel Aviv District Court on Monday rejected Likud MK Afif Abed's attempt to restore a narrowly approved change allowing current and former MKs, ministers, and deputy ministers to run in district primaries. These developments underscore the fluidity of the political landscape, where alliances are shifting daily and the electoral threshold is culling weaker parties.

Analysis: What This Means for Israel's Future

The Likud's internal crisis is more than a party management issue; it reflects a broader tension between Netanyahu's centralized control and the party's historical identity as a grassroots movement. With approximately 140,000 Likud members eligible to vote in the primaries, the party has long prided itself on being the only major faction that consistently selects candidates through large-scale primaries, while other parties rely on leaders or nominating committees. The Democrats held online primaries, but Likud's process has been a point of pride and a mechanism for rank-and-file influence. The reserved slots threaten to undermine that identity, and the rebellion from figures like Gotliv and Bitan suggests the grassroots will not accept this quietly.

The implications for the October 27 election are significant. If the Likud list is seen as a product of backroom deals rather than democratic primaries, it could depress turnout among the party's base, further eroding its projected 22 seats. Conversely, if Netanyahu's picks bring in fresh talent like Dobronsky, the party could broaden its appeal to tech-savvy voters concerned about the economy and AI integration. The defense minister slot for Israel Katz is a double-edged sword: it ensures continuity in security leadership but alienates ambitious MKs who see their careers blocked. The Saar slot, while justified by the merger agreement, reinforces the perception that the party is being run from the top down.

For Israeli and regional readers, the stakes are existential. The next government will inherit a nation still grappling with the aftermath of October 7, a war in Gaza that shows no clear end, a northern border that remains volatile, and a direct confrontation with Iran that has reshaped the Middle East's balance of power. The coalition that emerges from these elections will determine Israel's approach to the Palestinian Authority, the future of the settlements, the handling of the hostage crisis, and the country's readiness for further military engagements. The Arab parties' potential role in a coalition, while historically unprecedented, could reshape domestic policy on issues ranging from crime in Arab communities to budget allocations.

The coming weeks will be decisive. The Likud primaries on August 17, whether held on schedule or postponed, will reveal whether Netanyahu's grip on the party holds. The September 7 deadline for candidate lists will crystallize the field, and the final polls will show whether the anti-Netanyahu bloc can maintain its 70-seat advantage. For now, the campaign is defined by uncertainty: a historic full term has given way to a chaotic election season, and the outcome on October 27 will shape Israel's trajectory for years to come. The voters, as Tally Gotliv insists, will have the final say—but the question is whether the party machinery will let them.

By Hannah Berg, Staff Writer

This article was produced with AI-assisted research and editorial support. Reporting is based on sources cited in the article.