Trump Targets Oil Profits as Mexico Tracks Fuel Costs

In a recent DW News report, energy expert Harold "Skip" York examined President Donald Trump's criticism of ExxonMobil and Chevron for posting record profits during the US-Iran conflict. The segment highlighted how Brent crude prices jumped from near $70 a barrel before the February 28, 2026 strikes to $126 by late April, with US gasoline averaging $4.10 per gallon on August 3. These shifts directly affect Mexican families who rely on imported US Gulf Coast gasoline and face higher transport costs for tortillas and produce in colonias across Mexico City and Monterrey.

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of global oil trade each day, and the recent disruptions have sent ripples far beyond the Persian Gulf. Mexican motorists in cities from Guadalajara to Tijuana feel the impact because the country imports between 60 and 70 percent of its gasoline from refineries along the US Gulf Coast. When Brent crude climbs sharply, the cost of moving corn to tortillerías or fresh produce to tianguis markets rises within days, squeezing household budgets in working-class neighborhoods.

Economists note that even a sustained $20 increase in the price of a barrel adds measurable pressure to Mexico’s import bill. With remittances from the United States exceeding $60 billion annually, many families on both sides of the border share the same concern: higher fuel costs in Houston or Phoenix reduce the amount of money that can be sent home to cover groceries and school supplies in Puebla or Michoacán.

Trump Targets Oil Majors as Mexico Tracks Fuel Costs

Mexico City, Mexico – This Week — On Monday, August 3, 2026, President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that ExxonMobil and Chevron earned too much from crude shortages caused by the US-Iran war. He demanded the companies return some profits and lower retail prices. ExxonMobil reported $14.5 billion in second-quarter earnings, more than double the $7.1 billion from a year earlier, while Chevron posted roughly $12 billion, up 400 percent from $2.5 billion.

Analysts say the political stakes are high because gasoline prices often influence midterm election outcomes in the United States. With voters heading to the polls later this year, sustained prices above four dollars per gallon can shift sentiment in key states that also supply refined products to northern Mexico. Energy experts point out that US shale producers have so far held back on rapid output increases, citing long lead times for new wells and investor pressure to maintain dividends rather than expand aggressively.

BP CEO Meg O’Neill addressed the same earnings cycle, noting that the company’s $5.7 billion quarterly profit reflected both higher realized prices and disciplined capital spending. At the same time, 350.org campaign director Clémence Dubois described the windfall gains as “obscene” and called for windfall taxes to support communities already struggling with inflation. Harold “Skip” York told DW News viewers that a significant portion of the price spike reflects a war premium rather than immediate supply shortages, though he added that fundamentals in global refining capacity remain tight.

Trump's Remarks on Oil Profits — The Story Unfolds

ExxonMobil and Chevron together earned more than $26 billion in the quarter, according to the DW News analysis. BP reported $5.7 billion in profits the same day. Brent crude traded around $85 a barrel this week after peaking at $126. US crude futures averaged $92 per barrel from April through June, 27 percent above the first quarter. Tehran’s attempts to restrict exports through the Strait of Hormuz created the largest supply disruption in recent history.

Energy analysts emphasize that the war premium embedded in current prices could fade quickly if diplomatic channels between Washington and Tehran reopen. They also note that Mexican blend crude, which PEMEX exports, has benefited from the same price lift, giving the state company additional revenue even as it pays more for imported gasoline components.

According to observers following US shale basins, many operators are choosing to return cash to shareholders rather than drill new wells at the current pace. This cautious approach keeps domestic supply growth modest and leaves Mexican importers exposed to continued volatility in Gulf Coast refining margins.

Mexican Energy Policy and Global Oil Shocks

Mexico imports most of its gasoline from US Gulf Coast refiners, linking pump prices directly to US refining margins. The Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público adjusts the IEPS fuel tax to smooth spikes, cutting the excise when global prices rise faster than inflation. PEMEX, carrying one of the heaviest debt loads among oil majors, gains export revenue from higher Mexican blend crude prices but pays more for imported fuels. The Sheinbaum administration continues to stress energy sovereignty in mañanera briefings, targeting higher output at the Dos Bocas refinery and existing facilities.

PEMEX’s roughly $100 billion debt continues to limit its ability to accelerate upstream projects, even as the company aims to meet 2026 production goals set by the current administration. The Dos Bocas facility in Tabasco and the expanded Salina Cruz refinery in Oaxaca form the core of the strategy to reduce reliance on foreign gasoline, yet both projects still require steady supplies of imported crude and catalysts whose costs have risen with global benchmarks.

The IEPS smoothing mechanism works by lowering the excise tax when international prices surge, a policy refined after the 2017 gasolinazo protests that led to widespread demonstrations across central Mexico. President Sheinbaum has pledged continuity with former President López Obrador’s energy sovereignty agenda, while the Comisión Federal de Electricidad monitors parallel pressures on electricity tariffs that also affect small manufacturers in the Bajío region.

Economists at Mexican think tanks observe that the peso’s recent stability owes partly to Banco de México’s cautious rate path, yet any prolonged elevation in fuel prices could feed into inflation expectations and complicate the central bank’s next decisions. Under the USMCA framework, energy trade between Mexico and the United States remains tightly integrated, meaning higher US Gulf Coast margins translate quickly into higher costs at Mexican pumps.

Impact on Mexican Communities and Daily Life

Families in Tijuana, Ciudad Juárez, and Reynosa watch border fuel prices closely because many US drivers cross to fill tanks when Mexican prices stay lower. In rural ejidos and urban colonias, higher transport costs raise the price of corn delivered to tortillerías and produce at tianguis markets. Campesinos and small business owners in Oaxaca and Guadalajara feel the pressure through increased diesel expenses for tractors and delivery trucks. Healthcare workers at IMSS clinics in Monterrey note rising costs for medical supply deliveries tied to gasoline.

Pesero and Metro operators in Mexico City face growing pressure to adjust fares as diesel and electricity costs climb, while delivery drivers serving Guadalajara and Monterrey report longer hours needed to cover the same weekly income. Long-haul truckers moving goods between the northern border and central Mexico describe tighter margins that sometimes force them to reduce runs or pass costs to clients in the maquiladora sector.

Campesinos in the Bajío region note that fertilizer prices, which are sensitive to natural-gas and diesel costs, have climbed again, affecting planting decisions for the coming cycle. Coastal fishing communities in Sinaloa and Veracruz face similar diesel expenses that reduce the net return from each catch, while tourism-dependent businesses in pueblos mágicos such as San Miguel de Allende watch visitor numbers soften when fuel costs discourage weekend road trips from nearby cities.

Reactions from Mexican Officials and Analysts

Energy analysts in Mexico City note that the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público’s IEPS mechanism has kept average gasoline prices near 1.35 USD per liter, or roughly 24-25 pesos, despite the global surge. Opposition parties in the Congreso de la Unión, including PAN and PRI members, have questioned whether the smoothing can continue if crude remains elevated. Climate groups aligned with 350.org called the oil majors’ earnings obscene, echoing statements from campaign director Clémence Dubois.

Morena deputies in the lower house have defended the IEPS adjustment process as essential protection for working families, while PAN and PRI legislators argue that greater transparency on PEMEX’s hedging strategies would help the public understand long-term price risks. The Sindicato de Trabajadores Petroleros de la República Mexicana has urged the administration to accelerate maintenance at existing refineries to limit import dependence.

Economists tracking inflation expectations say Banco de México will likely keep its measured approach to rate cuts as long as global crude remains above $80, and they note that the Sheinbaum administration’s mañanera briefings continue to frame the situation as a temporary external shock rather than a domestic policy failure.

What to Watch For

PEMEX production targets and any further IEPS adjustments will be discussed in upcoming mañanera sessions. Border economies in Reynosa and Ciudad Juárez will track whether US drivers continue crossing for cheaper fuel. If US shale output rises in response to high prices, Mexican import costs could ease later this year, but current war-related supply risks remain the dominant factor.

Analysts will watch closely for any signs of renewed US-Iran talks that could ease the war premium on Brent crude and, by extension, on Mexican import costs. The Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público may consider additional IEPS tweaks if prices stay elevated through the fall, while PEMEX’s 2026 output targets will be measured against actual volumes delivered to the Dos Bocas and Salina Cruz facilities.

Border fuel dynamics will also influence nearshoring decisions, as foreign investors evaluate energy-cost stability when choosing sites in northern industrial corridors. The 2027 budget discussions in Congress are expected to revisit how much fiscal space remains for further IEPS support if global conditions do not improve.

The combination of elevated global crude and Mexico’s reliance on imported gasoline means ordinary households will continue to feel the effects through higher everyday expenses, from bus fares in Mexico City to fertilizer costs for farmers in the Bajío region.

By Rosa Martinez, Staff Writer

This article was produced with AI-assisted research and editorial support. Reporting is based on sources cited in the article.