Saudi Concerns Over Iran‑Backed Militias Shape Gulf Security Outlook

In a special edition of Al Arabiya English’s Counterpoints, recorded at the IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, journalist Melinda Nucifora sat down with Baria Alamuddin – a journalist, author and activist – to assess the evolving security landscape of the Gulf. Their conversation, aired on 6 November 2026, foregrounded the growing anxiety in Riyadh and other Gulf capitals about Iran‑backed militias operating from Iraq, the broader implications for regional stability, and the strategic recalibrations underway among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members. Alamuddin’s insights, framed by the broader context of Sunni‑Shia competition, great‑power rivalry and energy security, provide a nuanced lens through which to view the current security calculus of the Gulf.

Iran‑Backed Militias in Iraq: A Direct Threat to Saudi Arabia

Alamuddin began by underscoring the perception in Saudi Arabia that Iran‑backed militias in Iraq constitute a “growing threat” to the kingdom and its Gulf neighbours. She highlighted that these militias have, on several occasions, carried out attacks that reverberated beyond Iraqi borders, creating a security spill‑over that Riyadh finds increasingly intolerable. While she did not enumerate specific incidents, the implication was clear: the militias’ operational reach, bolstered by Iranian support, now extends into the Gulf’s strategic depth.

According to Alamuddin, the militias’ ability to launch cross‑border attacks or to threaten critical infrastructure in the Gulf amplifies Saudi concerns about the durability of its own defense posture. The activist stressed that the militias’ alignment with Tehran’s regional agenda makes them a proxy instrument for Iranian influence, thereby complicating Iraq’s internal security dynamics and its relations with the Gulf states.

She also noted that the Iraqi government faces “significant challenges” in curbing the militias’ autonomy, a factor that fuels Saudi anxieties. The inability of Baghdad to fully rein in these groups not only undermines Iraq’s sovereignty but also creates a security vacuum that Tehran can exploit to project power toward the Persian Gulf.

Hezbollah’s Trajectory and Its Implications for Gulf Security

Turning to Lebanon, Alamuddin examined the future of Hezbollah, describing it as a “key variable” in the regional security equation. She argued that Hezbollah’s continued alignment with Iran and its capacity to act as a conduit for Iranian policy in the Levant adds another layer of complexity for Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, which has long viewed Hezbollah as a destabilising force.

Alamuddin suggested that any escalation involving Hezbollah could reverberate across the Gulf, especially if Tehran were to coordinate actions between its Lebanese and Iraqi proxies. While she did not cite specific operational plans, the broader strategic implication is that Hezbollah remains a potent lever in Tehran’s broader regional strategy, thereby influencing Gulf security calculations.

The activist also pointed out that the internal political dynamics within Lebanon, including the role of Hezbollah, affect the broader Sunni‑Shia balance of power. A more assertive Hezbollah could embolden other Iran‑aligned groups, potentially prompting a chain reaction of heightened sectarian tensions throughout the Gulf region.

US Foreign Policy: Constraints and Opportunities for Gulf States

Alamuddin addressed the impact of United States foreign policy on the Gulf’s security environment, noting that Washington’s approach to Iran and its proxies remains a critical factor for Saudi Arabia and its allies. She observed that US policy decisions, particularly those concerning sanctions, military assistance, and diplomatic engagement with Tehran, shape the strategic calculus of Gulf states.

She emphasized that the United States’ willingness to support Gulf security initiatives, whether through arms sales, joint exercises, or intelligence sharing, directly influences Riyadh’s capacity to counter Iranian influence. Conversely, any perceived reduction in US commitment could compel Saudi Arabia to seek alternative security partnerships, perhaps deepening ties with other regional powers.

Alamuddin also hinted at the broader geopolitical context, indicating that US policy toward Iran must be understood against the backdrop of great‑power rivalry, especially as China and Russia expand their footprints in the Middle East. This dynamic adds pressure on the United States to maintain a credible deterrent posture, which in turn affects Gulf states’ strategic choices.

GCC Cooperation and Saudi‑Led Regional Security Partnerships

In response to the perceived threats, Alamuddin highlighted the “growing cooperation” among GCC countries as a central pillar of Saudi Arabia’s security strategy. She noted that Riyadh has been actively fostering regional security partnerships, seeking to integrate defense capabilities and infrastructure across the Gulf.

Alamuddin described these efforts as encompassing joint military exercises, intelligence coordination, and the development of shared defence procurement mechanisms. While she did not detail specific agreements, the narrative conveyed a concerted push by the GCC to present a unified front against external threats, particularly those emanating from Iran‑backed militias.

She also mentioned that Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as the hub of this security architecture, leveraging its economic weight and diplomatic influence to galvanise GCC members around common objectives. This approach, she argued, reflects a strategic shift from reliance on external powers toward a more self‑reliant regional security framework.

Rapid Development and Social Change in Saudi Arabia

Beyond the security discourse, Alamuddin turned her attention to the “rapid development” taking place across Saudi Arabia and the broader Gulf. She praised the kingdom’s ambitious infrastructure projects, noting that they are reshaping the economic landscape and enhancing the nation’s strategic depth.

Alamuddin also highlighted the expanding role of women in Saudi society, describing it as a “positive story” that international media often overlook. She pointed to increased female participation in the workforce, education, and public life as evidence of a broader social transformation that complements the kingdom’s economic modernization.

These domestic developments, she argued, have strategic implications: a more diversified economy and a more inclusive society can bolster Saudi Arabia’s resilience against external shocks, including security threats. By strengthening its internal foundations, Riyadh is better positioned to sustain a robust regional security posture.

Regional Implications: Stability, Energy Markets and Emerging Alliances

Alamuddin concluded by reflecting on the broader regional implications of the security dynamics she discussed. She warned that unchecked Iranian influence through militias in Iraq and Lebanon could destabilise the Gulf, potentially disrupting energy markets that are vital to global economic stability.

She emphasized that any escalation involving Iran‑backed groups could threaten the security of oil and gas infrastructure, both onshore and offshore, thereby affecting global energy supplies. This risk underscores the importance of the GCC’s coordinated security efforts and the need for robust defence and infrastructure integration, as she highlighted earlier.

Finally, Alamuddin suggested that the evolving security environment may catalyse new alliances, both within the Gulf and beyond. As Saudi Arabia deepens its regional partnerships and seeks to diversify its security arrangements, the balance of power in the Middle East could shift, prompting a re‑assessment of existing alignments and the emergence of new strategic coalitions.

By Malik Hassan, Staff Writer

This article was produced with AI-assisted research and editorial support. Reporting is based on the source material cited below. Sources: Al Arabiya English video report (06 November 2026); Al Arabiya English; Global1.News