Ontario Poll: Liberals Lead PCs as Ford Approval Sinks

Recent polling from Liaison Strategies shows the Ontario Liberals holding a narrow lead over Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives, even as questions mount over expense practices at Queen's Park. The survey captures a moment of shifting voter sentiment amid ongoing economic pressures and fresh scrutiny of government spending. Opposition parties look to capitalise on any signs of weakness in the governing caucus.

Ontario Liberals Lead Poll as Doug Ford Faces Expense Scrutiny

Toronto, Ontario — Recent public opinion research from Liaison Strategies places the Ontario Liberals at 38 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, five points ahead of Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives at 33 per cent. The NDP sits at 21 per cent, with the Greens at three per cent. These figures emerge as the governing party faces questions over expense practices at Queen's Park.

Approval Ratings Under Pressure

Only 24 per cent of respondents approved of the job Doug Ford is doing as premier, while 72 per cent disapproved. The approval level marks a decline from roughly 30 per cent recorded at the start of 2026. Such numbers reflect broader dissatisfaction amid ongoing economic pressures facing Ontario households.

Details of the Expense Controversy

Former tourism minister Stan Cho resigned last week after billing taxpayers approximately $16,000 for hotel stays in Toronto, despite living six kilometres from the legislature. He also charged his riding association for additional hotel and restaurant costs. Three Peel Region MPPs similarly spent tens of thousands on downtown Toronto hotel rooms. Internal emails indicate that the government house leader and whip informed members they could charge the public for such accommodations, a directive that has since come under scrutiny. David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, noted that Ontarians are being squeezed by household costs, and now they are seeing a government explain why members who live near Queen's Park were billing hotel stays. The contrast between these claims and the daily pressures facing many residents has amplified criticism of the government's approach to public funds.

Cost of Living Context in Ontario

Ontario families continue to navigate elevated household expenses, including housing costs and grocery prices that have strained budgets across the province. Valentin observed that the dollar amounts involved matter less than the perception created when residents feel squeezed by living costs. "The damaging part is not just the dollar amount, it is the contrast," he said. "Ontarians are being squeezed by household costs, and now they are seeing a government explain why members who live near Queen's Park were billing hotel stays. That is a rough fairness test for any government, but especially one with Ford's approval numbers."

Party Standing and Modest Shifts

The Liberals remain unchanged at 38 per cent from the firm's June tracker. The PCs have slipped two points to 33 per cent, while the NDP sits at 21 per cent. Valentin described the changes as small yet consistent in direction, moving support away from the governing party toward opposition benches. No single party holds a commanding lead at this stage. Despite lacking a permanent leader, the Liberals maintain a lead in the polling, indicating that the current scandal has not yet translated into gains for the governing party. The NDP, now at 21 per cent, finds itself in a position where it could play a significant role in any future minority scenario.

Broader Implications for Provincial Politics

Ontario's political landscape often hinges on federal-provincial dynamics, particularly around healthcare funding and housing initiatives that affect residents across the province. With an election still some time away, current polling offers an early snapshot rather than a definitive forecast. Federal-provincial dynamics in the 905 region, including areas such as Brampton and Mississauga, may also feel the effects as local voters weigh the performance of the Ford government against these expense issues. The poll trends point to a fluid landscape heading into the next election.

Expert Perspective on the Numbers

Valentin emphasised that stories of downtown hotel billings reinforce negative perceptions for an incumbent premier whose approval sits at 24 per cent. He pointed out that the situation presents a fairness test, especially when contrasted with the cost pressures felt by Ontario households. "The movement is small, but it is still movement away from Ford and toward the opposition parties," he said, noting that stories about MPPs billing taxpayers for Toronto hotel rooms "are exactly the kind of thing that reinforces a bad frame."

By Alex Thompson, Staff Writer