COP31 could offer new climate tools as AI emissions rise

As the world prepares for the upcoming COP31 climate summit in Türkiye, the conversation is shifting from traditional emissions sources to a new, rapidly expanding driver of carbon output: artificial intelligence. The mounting energy demand of data centres that power large‑language models and other AI services has drawn the attention of policymakers, industry leaders and climate experts alike. In the broader context of Sunni‑Shia competition, great‑power rivalry and the ever‑tightening grip of energy security on regional geopolitics, the Turkish presidency’s push for a “climate‑responsible AI” agenda underscores how technology is now intertwined with the strategic calculations of the Middle East.

From the Antalya Pledge to Global Policy

Türkiye’s hosting of COP31 in Antalya provides a symbolic platform for what officials have termed the Antalya Pledge on Artificial Intelligence. Developed in cooperation with the United Nations International Telecommunication Union, the pledge is intended to become a political commitment that aligns national AI infrastructure development with the Paris‑era climate objectives. Murat Kurum, the designated COP31 president, emphasized the need for transparent corporate reporting on energy consumption and a shift toward clean‑energy power for AI operations.

The pledge reflects a broader trend where governments are beginning to set the terms of AI deployment, moving beyond voluntary corporate sustainability reports toward binding political promises. While the exact language of the draft remains under negotiation, the Turkish initiative signals a willingness among emerging economies to shape the regulatory environment for AI, a sector traditionally dominated by Western tech giants.

For the Middle East, where data‑centre capacity is expanding to support both domestic digital transformation and the export of AI services, the pledge could become a benchmark. Nations that adopt the Antalya framework may find themselves better positioned to attract foreign investment while demonstrating compliance with global climate standards, a factor increasingly relevant in the region’s competition for technology leadership.

Energy Implications of AI’s Rise

Experts highlighted the scale of AI’s energy footprint during recent briefings. Siddharth Singh, an AI specialist at the International Energy Agency, warned that data centres have become a “challenge” for the energy system, raising genuine concerns about the sector’s carbon trajectory. The rapid expansion of large‑language models such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude, which are far more energy‑intensive than many specialised AI applications, amplifies this pressure.

Nevertheless, Singh also framed AI as a dual‑edged sword: a potent tool whose climate impact depends on deployment choices. When applied to sectors like electricity grid management, AI can enhance efficiency, mitigate variability in solar and wind generation, and ultimately reduce overall energy consumption.

The International Energy Agency’s modelling suggests that, if AI is integrated across transport, industry and buildings, the technology could save roughly 13.5 exajoules of energy by 2035—an amount comparable to Indonesia’s annual energy demand. This projection underscores the magnitude of potential gains, but also the importance of steering AI development toward low‑carbon pathways.

AI as a Climate‑Mitigation Enabler

Beyond the macro‑level energy savings, AI is already being deployed in concrete climate‑action projects. WattTime, an environmental‑technology nonprofit, uses AI algorithms to schedule the operation of electric vehicles, smartphones and other devices during periods when the electricity mix is dominated by renewable sources. By aligning demand with clean supply, such tools can shave emissions from everyday activities without requiring additional renewable capacity.

In the electricity sector, AI-driven forecasting helps grid operators anticipate fluctuations in solar and wind output, enabling more precise dispatch of generation assets. This capability reduces reliance on fossil‑fuel peaker plants, which are typically the most carbon‑intensive part of the system.

Weather forecasting, a critical input for agriculture, disaster preparedness and renewable‑energy planning, has also benefited from AI acceleration. Florian Pappenberger of the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts noted that AI has compressed a decade‑long forecasting cycle into two years, delivering high‑skill predictions at lower cost. Faster, more accurate forecasts improve the timing of renewable integration and can inform early warning systems that mitigate climate‑related risks.

The Fossil‑Fuel Paradox

While AI offers pathways to decarbonisation, its adoption by the oil and gas sector presents a paradox. Companies in the hydrocarbons industry have long employed AI to analyse geological surveys, optimise reservoir extraction and streamline production processes. These applications, though efficient, effectively accelerate the exploitation of fossil fuels, potentially locking in emissions for decades.

Maria João Sousa, executive director of Climate Change AI, warned that AI’s role in fossil‑fuel workflows could “have a detrimental impact on climate change.” Her organisation, which promotes AI for climate action, stresses that technology alone cannot resolve the climate crisis; policy, behavioural change and systemic shifts remain essential.

The coexistence of AI as both a climate‑mitigation tool and a fossil‑fuel accelerator highlights the need for robust governance frameworks. The Antalya Pledge’s emphasis on transparency and clean‑energy sourcing could serve as a lever to discourage AI‑driven fossil‑fuel optimisation while incentivising climate‑positive applications.

Regional Dynamics and Strategic Implications

The AI‑energy debate cannot be detached from the broader strategic landscape of the Middle East. Nations such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are investing heavily in AI research and data‑centre infrastructure as part of their diversification agendas. Aligning these investments with climate‑responsible standards could enhance their soft power, positioning them as leaders in sustainable digital transformation.

Conversely, countries lagging in clean‑energy integration may find their AI ambitions constrained by rising global scrutiny. International investors and technology partners are increasingly conditioning capital on ESG performance, and the Antalya Pledge could become a de‑facto benchmark for regional AI projects seeking external financing.

Great‑power rivalry also plays a role. The United States and China are competing for AI dominance, and their respective approaches to AI‑related emissions could influence regional partners. If the U.S. pushes stricter climate‑aligned AI standards while China offers lower‑cost, carbon‑intensive data‑centre solutions, Middle Eastern states will need to navigate a delicate balance between technological access and climate credibility.

Looking Ahead: From Pledge to Practice

As COP31 approaches, the Antalya Pledge will be tested on the ground. Its success hinges on translating political commitments into enforceable mechanisms: mandatory reporting of data‑centre energy use, incentives for renewable‑powered AI infrastructure, and perhaps a certification scheme for “climate‑responsible AI” services.

Stakeholders from the private sector, civil society and international organisations are calling for clear metrics and timelines. While the source material does not detail specific enforcement tools, the emphasis on transparency and clean‑energy sourcing suggests that future negotiations may explore carbon‑budget allocations for AI, similar to those being debated for other high‑emission industries.

In the interim, the dual narrative of AI as both a source of emissions and a catalyst for decarbonisation will continue to shape policy discourse. For the Middle East, where energy security and digital ambition intersect, the outcome of COP31 could define whether AI becomes a lever for sustainable growth or another vector of carbon lock‑in.

Conclusion: Balancing Innovation and Responsibility

The emergence of AI as a focal point at COP31 reflects a broader shift in climate governance: the need to address the environmental costs of cutting‑edge technologies while harnessing their potential to solve the very problems they create. The Antalya Pledge, still in draft form, offers a template for how governments can set the terms of AI deployment, demanding corporate transparency and clean‑energy alignment.

For the region, the stakes are high. Energy‑intensive AI services can strain already volatile power systems, yet AI‑enabled efficiencies promise substantial emissions reductions across sectors. The challenge lies in steering investment toward low‑carbon AI ecosystems and preventing the technology from becoming a tool that entrenches fossil‑fuel dependence.

Ultimately, the effectiveness of climate‑responsible AI will be measured not by the number of models deployed, but by the rigor of the policies that govern them. As the world watches Türkiye’s leadership at COP31, the outcome will signal whether the global community can reconcile rapid digital innovation with the urgent imperative of climate action.

This article was produced with AI-assisted research and editorial support. Reporting is based on the source material cited below. Sources: Daily Sabah Middle East; dailysabah.com; Global1.News (15 October 2026).

By Malik Hassan, Staff Writer