Sudan's War Traps Civilians in El-Obeid as RSF Closes In

Thousands of Sudanese families who fled to el-Obeid for safety now watch the skies and roads with dread, as paramilitary forces prepare another push into their fragile refuge. The city, still held by the army, has become both a lifeline and a trap in a conflict that shows no mercy to ordinary people.

El-Obeid Civilians Face Fresh RSF Threat

El-Obeid, Sudan — Displaced families who sought shelter in el-Obeid now confront advancing Rapid Support Forces fighters, with UN warnings that an assault could repeat the horrors seen in el-Fasher last October. The North Kordofan capital remains a key military stronghold, yet drone strikes and supply cuts have left around 500,000 people — including 105,000 displaced — facing severe shortages.

The Growing Shadow Over El-Obeid

People poured into el-Obeid hoping the army's defenses would protect them from Sudan's civil war. Instead, clashes in North Kordofan have intensified, turning the city into a new frontline where both sides see strategic value. The UN's International Organization for Migration (IOM) says the city has become a key refuge for people escaping violence in surrounding areas, with satellite imagery showing the main displacement camp expanding significantly since March and aid workers reporting dozens of new arrivals each day.

Families Running Out of Safe Places

"Families have run out of safe options to protect themselves," Mohamed Refaat, IOM chief of mission in Sudan, told the BBC. "Many have already been displaced before and are once again forced to leave behind their homes, livelihoods and support networks."

These civilians carry the weight of lost homes and broken networks, seeking only a moment of peace amid relentless fighting. For many, el-Obeid is not a first refuge but a last one — people who have already fled once, twice or more, and now have nowhere left to run.

Warnings of Repeating Past Atrocities

UN officials and G7 foreign ministers have warned that the RSF may be preparing to attack the city, raising fears that atrocities akin to those seen in el-Fasher could be repeated. Thousands of people were killed in mass executions after the paramilitary overran Sudanese Armed Forces troops defending the Darfur city last October, in one of the worst atrocities since the civil war began in 2023. UN investigators later declared those crimes bore "the hallmarks of genocide," while Amnesty International has described the massacres as ethnic cleansing.

An international coalition of countries — including the United Kingdom, Canada, France and Germany — delivered a statement through Norway on behalf of the Coalition for Atrocity Prevention and Justice for Sudan, warning of impending atrocities. The memory of el-Fasher hangs heavily over North Kordofan communities already stretched thin by months of conflict.

Drone Strikes and Daily Survival

The steady hum of unmanned aircraft has become the soundtrack to daily life in el-Obeid, where residents report as many as 40 drones in the sky at a time. Data from the International NGO Safety Organisation shows North Kordofan has recorded the highest number of drone attacks in Sudan in 2026, with the RSF launching a record barrage on the city in June before pausing amid Sudanese military operations elsewhere.

A 25-year-old local aid worker, who asked not to be named for her safety, told NPR that people are killed while asleep at home, on the way to school, or in the market — and that strikes even hit funerals. Her uncle was killed by a drone while going to bury a neighbour who had died in an earlier strike. Verified footage captured a massive explosion at a fuel station in the heart of the city after one attack, while satellite images show damage to power stations and supply warehouses in the market district. Those power disruptions have caused blackouts, cut water supplies and hampered hospitals, according to the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab.

Aid Efforts Under Strain

Islamic Relief, which operates aid stations in el-Obeid, told BBC Verify that flights carrying aid via the airport have stopped. Supply convoys attempting to reach the city have been targeted by drone attacks, and the UN has warned that nearly 400,000 people in the city's vicinity are facing food shortages after RSF commanders spent months cutting off supply routes — what one UN official called a "functional siege."

One Islamic Relief humanitarian official said the recent slowing of drone strikes has improved conditions: more aid is being distributed and some power has been restored, but the situation remains extremely "unpredictable," with fuel shortages still acute. "Every day we are seeing new arrivals due to fighting in areas around El-Obeid," the aid worker said. "It would be about 80 or 100 households daily." Aid teams are working to stretch limited resources as the camp's rapid growth tests every support system.

Local Tensions and Human Cost

Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, has described "relentless" drone attacks by advancing paramilitaries and noted a painful new dynamic inside the city: many displaced people sheltering in el-Obeid have faced suspicion and hostility from locals over fears that RSF sympathisers are infiltrating the city. More than 83,000 civilians have fled fighting elsewhere in the state and sought shelter here, the UN estimates, turning daily life into a balance between survival and community friction.

Military Moves and RSF Resolve

Satellite images suggest the Sudanese military is building a defensive berm — an earth wall — around el-Obeid, unlike the enclosure the RSF built around el-Fasher last year, which trapped people inside the besieged city. On Monday, the military said a massive operation had secured a vital highway between el-Obeid and the capital, Khartoum.

In response, RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, said he was "unleashing" his fighters and ordered front-line commanders to "move straight forward. No more retreat. No more hesitation." Verified footage posted to the paramilitary's official Telegram channel shows a commander waving an assault rifle while addressing troops, promising they would soon see combat in el-Obeid; another verified clip from late May captured fighters gathering with dozens of armoured vehicles just outside the RSF heartland of Nyala, with one fighter boasting that the unit's next target was the city. BBC Verify has located RSF fighters within 40 kilometres (24 miles) of el-Obeid.

Nohad Eltayeb, senior research assistant at Acled, told BBC Verify the city is the critical juncture connecting RSF-controlled western territories with the military-held central and White Nile regions. She added that the RSF "need to regain momentum following territorial losses in the eastern Blue Nile region, alongside internal instability and defections within its Darfur strongholds."

What the Fall of El-Obeid Would Mean

El-Obeid sits on the corridor between RSF-held western Sudan — Darfur and Kordofan — and military-held central Sudan and the White Nile region. Losing it would consolidate the RSF's grip over a vast western arc and threaten the military's hold on the country's centre, reshaping a war that has already become the world's largest displacement crisis, with more than 14 million people displaced since April 2023.

For civilians, the stakes are far more immediate. An assault on the city risks a repeat of the horrors of el-Fasher, where the paramilitary's takeover last October was followed by mass killings. Families sheltering in el-Obeid's swelling camps are watching the same warning signs — an extended siege, a build-up of armoured vehicles nearby, and fighters openly vowing to come — and praying the world acts before it is too late.

Calls for External Restraint

The joint EU and G7 warning on el-Obeid urged all "external actors" to suspend "armed, logistical, or financial support to the parties to the conflict." Earlier this month, the European Parliament expressly named the United Arab Emirates as a key backer of the RSF; Emirati officials have repeatedly denied the allegations.

Alan Boswell, Crisis Group's Horn of Africa director, suggested the flurry of early Western interventions is motivated by the failure to avert the el-Fasher massacre, which was the culmination of an extended siege and RSF build-up. "Many are trying to turn up the volume on those warnings to prevent another round of mass atrocities in el-Obeid," he said. "The key is if world leaders will put enough pressure on the RSF and its main backer to make a difference this time." For the families huddled in el-Obeid's camps, watching the skies and waiting, that question has never felt more urgent.

By Amara Diop, Staff Writer

This article was produced with AI-assisted research and editorial support. Reporting is based on sources cited in the article.