Rocket Report: China wants a Raptor 3 engine; SpaceX set for big Starship test

Space’s power shift is happening faster than most analysts expected. In the past week alone, the United Launch Alliance’s fading dominance, Europe’s scramble for subsidies, China’s commercial surge, and SpaceX’s milestone launches have reshaped the competitive map. For the everyday tech‑savvy reader, the story isn’t just about rockets; it’s about who will control the price and reliability of the services that underpin everything from global broadband to climate data. Below we break down the week’s biggest moves, why they matter, and who stands to gain—or lose—in the new launch‑service order.

United Launch Alliance’s waning grip

Stephen Clark’s deep dive, highlighted in Ars Technica’s latest Rocket Report, paints a stark picture for United Launch Alliance (ULA). Co‑owned by Boeing and Lockheed Martin, ULA once ruled the U.S. launch market, but the report underscores how that dominance is eroding. The company remains tethered to expendable rockets, a model that is increasingly out of step with the reusable‑first‑stage trend set by SpaceX.

While the article does not cite specific revenue figures, the narrative makes clear that ULA’s market share has slipped as customers chase lower‑cost, higher‑frequency launch options. The implication is that without a competitive reusable system, ULA may find itself relegated to niche government contracts while commercial demand drifts elsewhere.

Avio’s unexpected windfall

Italian launch services provider Avio has turned a setback for SpaceX into a growth opportunity. During its September 10 earnings call, CEO Giulio Ranzo told European Spaceflight that the company is fielding a “whole bunch of customers” seeking launch slots after SpaceX stopped taking new Falcon 9 orders. This influx of demand is directly linked to SpaceX’s decision to pause commercial Falcon 9 sales, a move that has left many satellite operators scrambling for alternatives.

Avio’s flagship Vega C rocket, which lifted the ESA’s FLEX Earth Explorer and Copernicus Sentinel‑3C satellites on Tuesday, is now positioned as a viable fallback. Although the launch price isn’t disclosed, Ranzo hinted it sits around $60 million per flight—a figure that, while higher than a typical Falcon 9 launch, may be palatable for customers who have no other immediate options. The surge in interest also sparked lobbying at the International Space Summit in Paris, where European firms pressed for subsidies to offset the higher cost of European launches.

Europe’s subsidy dilemma

The push for public support reflects a broader tension in European space policy. Ranzo’s remarks about seeking financial aid for customers turned away by SpaceX highlight a potential reliance on government subsidies to keep European launch providers competitive. However, the Rocket Report cautions that subsidizing expendable rockets like Vega C could be a short‑sighted strategy.

Instead, the report argues for deeper investment in next‑generation, competitively priced rockets. The logic is clear: Europe’s long‑term launch relevance hinges on developing reusable or lower‑cost systems that can match the economics of SpaceX’s Falcon 9. Without that shift, European providers risk becoming a premium‑price niche, limiting market share to customers with no alternative.

China’s commercial launch boom

China’s launch cadence this week underscores a rapid commercial expansion. Within a 44‑hour window, the country executed four launches from Jiuquan, Hainan, and a maritime platform in the East China Sea. The roster included LandSpace’s Zhuque‑2E, Orienspace’s Gravity‑1, the state‑run Long March 12, and ExPace’s Kuaizhou‑11.

Three of the four rockets originated from commercial or quasi‑commercial entities, signaling that China’s private launch sector is moving beyond test flights toward operational missions. This diversification reduces reliance on the traditional Long March fleet and points to a future where Chinese constellations—whether for communications, Earth observation, or navigation—will be built on a broader launch base.

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 milestone and its ripple effects

SpaceX marked a historic milestone with its 700th Falcon launch, a mix of 687 Falcon 9 and 13 Falcon Heavy flights, according to Spaceflight Now. The latest mission, dubbed mPOWER‑F, lifted three satellites for long‑time customer SES from Florida. The flight used booster B1080 on its 29th reuse, a testament to the company’s aggressive reuse cadence.

The mission also highlighted SpaceX’s operational density: the launch was the 400th orbital flight from Space Launch Complex‑40, a pad that the company has used for 345 of those launches. These numbers illustrate how SpaceX’s high launch frequency and rapid turnaround have become a market‑shaping force, pressuring competitors to either match the cadence or carve out niche markets.

The Mars telecommunications showdown

NASA’s recent decision to award the Mars Telecommunications Network contract to Blue Origin, valued at $700 million, sparked a sharp dispute with Rocket Lab. Rocket Lab’s protest to the Government Accountability Office alleges that NASA’s technical review was “inconsistent” and contained “incorrect assertions.” Blue Origin, in turn, warned that the protest could push the mission’s 2028 launch target further out.

This clash underscores how high‑stakes contracts are becoming arenas for corporate rivalry. While Blue Origin secures the contract, Rocket Lab’s challenge signals its determination to stay in the deep‑space game, even as it battles for market relevance against both legacy players and newer entrants.

Emerging European engine tech: Sirius’s STAR‑1

On the propulsion front, French startup Sirius Space Services test‑fired its STAR‑1 engine in southern England. The liquid‑oxygen/methane engine produced 55 kN of thrust and demonstrated integrated operation of turbopumps, combustion chamber, injector, avionics, and software. Sirius plans to cluster nine STAR‑1 units in a common‑core launch vehicle, suggesting a modular approach to building a new European launch capability.

This development is significant because it adds another layer to Europe’s launch ecosystem, potentially offering a lower‑cost, methane‑based alternative to the solid‑fuel Vega family. If Sirius can translate the test‑fire success into operational launches, it could provide customers with more choices and increase competition within Europe, aligning with the broader call for diversified, price‑competitive launch options.

This article was produced with AI-assisted research and editorial support. Reporting is based on the source material cited below. Sources: Ars Technica; arstechnica.com; Global1.News (19 September 2026).

By Nova Chen, Staff Writer