Israel’s Eisenkot leads Netanyahu by 9 points as coalition edges opposition by 2 seats: Poll

As Israel approaches a pivotal election on 27 October 2026, a new Channel 13 poll reveals a striking shift in public sentiment. While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing bloc retains a narrow lead in projected Knesset seats, the opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party is now seen as the more suitable prime minister by a clear margin. The poll, conducted in cooperation with Index, Stat‑Net, Sample and Askaria, surveyed 886 respondents and carries a margin of error of 3.3 percent. These numbers, though provisional, illuminate the deepening political fissures and the human‑rights stakes that accompany Israel’s internal contestations.

Public Preference for Leadership

The poll asks respondents which figure they consider better suited to serve as prime minister. Forty‑five percent chose Eisenkot, while thirty‑six percent favoured Netanyahu. This nine‑point gap signals a notable erosion of confidence in Netanyahu’s leadership, especially given his long tenure and the legal challenges he faces.

Netanyahu, who leads the Likud party, is simultaneously contending with a corruption trial that could result in imprisonment and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant related to alleged war crimes in Gaza. Such legal pressures, combined with the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the occupied territories, appear to be reshaping voter expectations about accountability and governance.

Projected Seat Distribution

If elections were held today, the poll projects Netanyahu’s bloc would secure fifty‑four seats, the Jewish opposition parties would obtain fifty‑two, and Arab parties would claim fourteen. The threshold to form a government in the 120‑member Knesset stands at sixty‑one seats, meaning neither bloc can govern alone without additional support.

Within Netanyahu’s bloc, Likud itself would win eighteen seats. The alliance of Religious Zionism and Zehut, led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin, would capture eight seats, as would Itamar Ben‑Gvir’s far‑right Otzma Yehudit. Shas and United Torah Judaism would each secure seven seats, while the Amcha Yisrael party would take six. These figures illustrate the fragmented nature of the right‑wing coalition, reliant on a mosaic of religious and nationalist parties.

The Opposition’s Parliamentary Outlook

On the opposition side, Yashar, under Eisenkot’s leadership, would win twenty‑two seats, positioning it as the largest single opposition party. Naftali Bennett’s Together party would receive twelve seats, Yair Golan’s Democrats ten, and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu eight. This distribution underscores a relatively united Jewish opposition front, though it still falls short of the sixty‑one‑seat majority.

The opposition’s refusal to rely on Arab parties to form a government, as noted in the poll analysis, reflects a political calculus that may limit coalition possibilities. Nonetheless, the need for Arab support remains a structural reality in Israel’s proportional representation system.

Arab Representation and Its Political Weight

The poll projects that Arab parties would collectively hold fourteen seats, with the Joint List securing eight and Mansour Abbas’ Ra’am obtaining six. While these numbers are modest compared with the larger Jewish blocs, they are pivotal in a tightly contested parliament where the governing threshold is just beyond reach for any single side.

Arab legislators have historically championed issues of equality, civil rights, and an end to the occupation. Their potential role as king‑makers in a fragmented Knesset raises questions about how human‑rights concerns will be addressed in any future coalition, especially given the ongoing humanitarian situation in Gaza and the West Bank.

Legal Shadows Over the Election

Netanyahu’s legal entanglements cast a long shadow over the electoral landscape. He is on trial for corruption charges that could lead to a prison sentence, and he faces an ICC arrest warrant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity linked to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. These proceedings not only affect his personal standing but also shape public perception of Israel’s adherence to international law.

International observers and human‑rights organisations have repeatedly called for accountability and respect for humanitarian law. The poll’s indication that a majority of respondents view Eisenkot as the more suitable prime minister may reflect a desire for leadership perceived as less encumbered by legal controversies and more attuned to the rule of law.

Electoral Dynamics and Coalition Calculus

With thirty‑eight lists registered to contest the upcoming Knesset election, the poll projects that thirteen will win seats. This fragmentation underscores the complexity of forming a stable government in Israel’s parliamentary system. Parties must navigate ideological divides, religious considerations, and the strategic necessity of securing Arab support to reach the sixty‑one‑seat threshold.

The projected seat counts suggest that any viable coalition will require delicate negotiations. Netanyahu’s bloc, despite a slight edge in seats, will need to court Arab parties or moderate factions to achieve a governing majority. Conversely, the opposition, while lacking a clear majority, could potentially assemble a broader coalition if it manages to bridge gaps between secular and religious parties and address the concerns of Arab legislators.

Human‑Rights Stakes in the Election

Beyond the numbers, the upcoming election carries profound implications for the human‑rights situation in the occupied territories. Netanyahu’s ongoing war‑crimes allegations and the broader context of the Gaza humanitarian crisis mean that the next government will inherit a legacy of international scrutiny.

If Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which currently leads in public preference for prime minister, assumes a leading role, there may be increased pressure to address the legal challenges surrounding the war in Gaza and to engage with international mechanisms for accountability. Conversely, a continuation of Netanyahu’s leadership could perpetuate the status quo, with the incumbent’s legal battles potentially limiting his capacity to enact policy changes.

In a political environment where both blocs require Arab party support, the voices of Palestinian citizens and the broader Arab minority could gain leverage in parliamentary debates. Their participation could bring greater attention to issues such as settlement expansion, movement restrictions, and the need for a durable cease‑fire, all of which remain central to the human‑rights discourse.

This article was produced with AI-assisted research and editorial support. Reporting is based on the source material cited below. Sources: Middle East Monitor; middleeastmonitor.com; Global1.News (18 September 2026).

By Fatima Al-Rashid, Staff Writer