Israel Election: Eisenkot Merges, Unveils Oct. 7 Slate as Polls Show 52-51 Deadlock

JERUSALEM — Folks, if you have been trying to keep up with Israeli politics, you know the drill by now: just when you think the map is settled, the ground shifts. Over the weekend, the ground did not just shift; it cracked open. The man who once ran the Israeli military, Gadi Eisenkot, is making a final, furious push to reshape the center of the country's political spectrum, and he is doing it with the ghosts of October 7th standing right beside him.

Israel Election: Eisenkot Merges, Unveils Oct. 7 Slate

Jerusalem — With exactly three weeks until Israelis head to the polls, the race for the next Knesset has entered its most volatile phase yet. On Sunday evening, a new public broadcaster poll showed the country split down the middle—52 mandates for the bloc backing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and 51 for the bloc seeking to unseat him. Neither side has the 61 seats needed to form a government. But on Monday morning, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party published a symbolic list of candidates designed to do one thing: remind every voter in this country exactly why this election is happening.

The Merger That Shook the Center

Let's rewind to Sunday. Lt. Gen. (res.) Gadi Eisenkot, the chairman of the Yashar party, finalized a political merger with lawmaker Chili Tropper's Zionist Home Party. This was not a casual alliance. Tropper had spent the earlier part of the day dissolving his party's alliance with Knesset member Yoaz Hendel's The Reservists Party. The center is cannibalizing itself to survive, and Eisenkot is emerging as the primary predator.

Eisenkot took to social media to welcome his new partner, writing: "Chili is a values-driven and statesmanlike leader, a man of action and service, and a partner in our belief in responsibility, national unity and a deep commitment to the State of Israel."

This is not just political fluff. Hebrew media reports indicate Tropper is slated to be placed sixth on Yashar's list and is expected to receive a top ministerial role if Yashar forms Israel's next coalition. This is a significant prize, and it signals that Eisenkot is playing to win, not just to survive.

Bringing the Bereaved Into the Fold

But the merger was only half the story. Two other Tropper-party members joined Yashar with realistic spots on the list, and their inclusion is a deliberate, powerful statement. Shira Shapira, the mother of Staff Sgt. Aner Shapira, who was slain during the Hamas-led invasion of the northwestern Negev on Oct 7, 2023, is expected to join. So is Elyasaf Peretz, whose brothers Uriel and Eliraz fell in combat.

Channel 12 News reports they are expected to slot in at 10th and 20th or 21st place, respectively. Shlomi Yehiav, the former chairman of the National Union of Israeli Students, is also expected to enter Yashar's list from Tropper's party.

Eisenkot framed the additions in stark moral terms: "The addition of Chili, Shira, Elisaf and Shlomi strengthens the principled, high-quality team we are building and the Zionist, service-oriented and statesmanlike alternative to the October 7 government... We will continue bringing forces together and broadening our ranks in order to win the election."

This is the core of the Eisenkot campaign: positioning his party as the only force capable of cleaning up the mess of October 7th, while simultaneously honoring those who paid the ultimate price.

The Symbolic Slate: A Message to the Nation

If the top of the list was about political horsepower, the bottom of the list—published Monday morning—is about moral authority. Yashar published a 10-place list sealing the party's 110th to 120th Knesset places. These are symbolic slots, designed not to win seats but to win headlines and hearts.

The names are devastating. Ohad Ben Ami, an Oct 7 survivor kidnapped with his wife Raz into Gaza from Kibbutz Be'eri. Shira and Eli Albag, parents of Cpl. Liri Albag, who was abducted from the Nahal Oz base and has since been released and returned to military service. Saphir Zohav Hamami, spouse of Col. Asaf Hamami, the former commander of the IDF Southern Brigade in the Gaza Strip, who was killed defending Kibbutz Nirim on Oct 7.

Eisenkot wrote on Facebook that these candidates "represent the spirit that Yashar is seeking to bring to the Knesset and the next government: to be worthy of the heavy price that has been paid, demand accountability, investigate the failures, rebuild the country and restore trust between its citizens and its leadership."

Folks, this is not a policy platform. This is a roll call of national trauma. Eisenkot is betting that the Israeli public is less interested in tax reform right now than they are in accountability.

The Numbers Game: 52 vs. 51

So, where does the race actually stand? The Kan public broadcaster poll, published Sunday evening and conducted by the Kantar Institute, paints a picture of a nation paralyzed by indecision. The poll, which surveyed 551 respondents with a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points, shows the Netanyahu bloc remains at 52 mandates, unchanged from last week. The bloc of parties opposed to Netanyahu, led by Eisenkot, lost four mandates and is projected at 51.

For those of you just tuning in, let's break down the math. The Knesset has 120 seats. To form a government, a coalition needs at least 61. A "mandate" is just another word for a Knesset seat. Neither bloc is anywhere close to the magic number of 61. This means the next government will likely require a coalition that crosses traditional bloc lines, or the country faces the prospect of another election.

The party-by-party breakdown is a mess of fragmentation. Yashar leads the pack with 23 seats (down one), followed by Likud at 20 (down one). Together—the alliance of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid—stands at 13 (down one). The Arab parties combined hold 13 (Joint List 7, Ra'am 6). The Democrats have 8, United Torah Judaism has 8, Yisrael Beiteinu has 7, Otzma Yehudit has 7, and Shas has 7.

Religious Zionism, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich after a merger with Moshe Feiglin, is up one to 6 seats. The newly merged Hendel-Zelekha list is projected at 4, just crossing the threshold. Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael also has 4. Notably, Blue and White and the Haredi Public party fail to cross the threshold, and the Unity party led by Gilad Erdan has withdrawn from the race entirely.

Understanding the Threshold

For a global audience, it is crucial to understand the stakes of these small numbers. Israel has a 4-seat electoral threshold. If a party doesn't get at least 4 seats, they get nothing. This is why we are seeing so many mergers. Hendel and Zelekha were polling below the threshold separately. Together, they are projected to just barely cross it.

This fragmentation is the story of the election. The Israeli electorate is not choosing between two clear visions; they are choosing between a dozen different flavors of anxiety. The poll shows a country that is exhausted, grieving, and deeply suspicious of its leadership on all sides.

The Smotrich Clash: A Preview of the Campaign

We got a taste of the campaign's intensity on Monday. Eisenkot sharply criticized Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich after Smotrich publicly supported religious soldiers from the Givati Brigade who were sentenced to military prison for refusing to board an ambulance staffed by a female paramedic. This is a violation of the IDF's gender-integration Joint Service Order.

Eisenkot, a former chief of staff, did not mince words. He said: "This is not the first time Smotrich has called for insubordination."

This is a direct attack on the cohesion of the military, a sacred cow in Israeli society. Eisenkot is drawing a clear line: he is the guardian of the army's professionalism, while Smotrich is a political ideologue willing to undermine it for sectarian gain. It is a potent message for centrist and secular voters who are worried about the growing influence of the religious right in the ranks.

What Happens Next

Tonight, Monday evening, Eisenkot is scheduled to unveil the full scope of Yashar's slate. This will be the definitive statement of his party's composition. Expect more names, more stories, and more pointed rhetoric aimed at the "October 7 government"—his term for the current coalition.

The campaign now enters its final three weeks. The arithmetic is brutal. Neither the Netanyahu bloc nor the anti-Netanyahu bloc can reach 61 seats on their own. This means the election result will likely be determined by the smaller parties hovering around the threshold. If Hendel-Zelekha and Amcha Yisrael make it in, the math changes. If they fall short, their votes are effectively wasted.

Eisenkot is running as the leader of the opposition, but he is also running as a statesman above the fray. He is trying to appeal to disillusioned Likud voters who are tired of the corruption scandals, and to center-left voters who are terrified of the security situation. He is offering a "Zionist, service-oriented and statesmanlike alternative."

The question is whether the Israeli public is ready to trust a general who was in charge when the walls fell on October 7th, even if he was not the one giving the political orders. Eisenkot's argument is that he is the one who demanded accountability, who left the government in protest, and who is now willing to lead the cleanup. He is betting that the symbolism of the bereaved families on his list will outweigh the trauma of the day itself.

With the election set for Sept 28, the next few days are critical. The polls are tight, the blocs are deadlocked, and the ghosts of October 7th are walking the campaign trail. This is not just an Israeli election; it is a referendum on the legacy of the worst day in the country's history. The outcome will shape the war in Gaza, the fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the foreign policy calculus of the United States and the entire region.

Stay tuned. The next three weeks will determine the future of the Middle East.

By Jessica Ali, Staff Writer

This article was produced with AI-assisted research and editorial support. Sources: JNS, Haaretz, Kan public broadcaster poll via Kantar Institute.