Record Chinese Ship Surge Near Taiwan Stirs Submarine-Warfare Fears

Record 244 Chinese Vessels Circle Taiwan as Beijing Tightens the Ring

TAIPEI - China pushed a record 244 coast guard, scientific research and other government vessels into Taiwan's surrounding waters in July, roughly eight ships a day, according to data released by Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) on Friday. The figures mark the third consecutive monthly record and the clearest signal yet that Beijing is treating the maritime ring around the island as its primary pressure point, even as its warships continue near-daily operations in the same waters.

About 60 percent of the vessels were coast guard ships, with research boats and other government craft making up the rest. The count does not include People's Liberation Army warships, which Taiwan's military tracks separately and says deploy around the island on an almost daily basis.

The Numbers Behind the Record

The July figure of 244 ships compares with 55 detected in June and 30 in May, and with 58 in the same month a year earlier, CGA data showed. In the first 21 days of August, Taiwan detected 152 additional vessels. Since May, the cumulative number of Chinese government ships detected around Taiwan and its outlying islands has reached 1,247.

"When we say the situation is becoming increasingly severe, we mean that the number of their government vessels in the waters surrounding Taiwan has increased, and there was a marked increase in July," a senior CGA official told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

The trend is not confined to one month. South China Morning Post reported on Aug 24 that mainland government vessel sightings around Taiwan had reached record levels for a third straight month, as Beijing expands its law enforcement footprint east of the island.

Research Ships and the Submarine-Warfare Question

Taiwanese officials and regional analysts say the surge is about more than asserting sovereignty. The CGA is tracking about 41 ships now operating in Taiwan's waters, including the Tong Ji, which circled Taiwan in May, hugged the edge of the island's restricted waters, and refused orders to leave. Its activity likely involved "oceanographic sampling and seabed survey operations," the CGA said, which could feed into China's antisubmarine warfare databases.

Ryan Martinson, an expert on China's maritime strategy at the US Naval War College, said Chinese research vessels are owned and operated by civilian research institutes, but the data they collect are shared with the military. "That kind of data/knowledge is highly useful for Chinese naval forces, which will operate in these waters in the event of a conflict," Martinson said in an email. "It is especially important for anti-submarine warfare and submarine warfare."

Martinson said he had observed a "very large increase" in the number of Chinese research vessels operating around Taiwan in recent months, especially east of the island. "This is not a new 'play' in its 'playbook.' Rather, the novel aspect is that the scale of these operations around Taiwan is unprecedented," he said.

Japan in the Crosshairs: The Ryukyu Trench Angle

For Tokyo, the most alarming detail is where some of these vessels are going. This month, China's Xiang Yang Hong 03 research vessel was observed operating within both Taiwan's and Japan's exclusive economic zones, moving over deep sea trenches and telecoms cables, according to Jason Wang, chief operating officer of ingeniSPACE, a firm that analyzes satellite imagery and ship signals data.

Wang said the vessel was escorted by a China Coast Guard ship and a fishing boat linked to China's maritime militia. "This is the first time we have seen maritime militia escort a research vessel in Taiwan's waters," he said. Beijing's objective, in his assessment, is to gather "fresh hydrographic data of the Ryukyu Trench and East Taiwan Trench to conduct anti-submarine warfare" and to "deny US and other allied vessels from doing the same."

The Ryukyu Trench runs along the southern edge of Japan's island chain, and the waters around Okinawa are precisely where Japanese and US submarines operate most densely in the Western Pacific. Any detailed seabed map of that corridor has direct military value, and Japanese defense planners have long watched Chinese survey activity in the East China Sea with suspicion. The same research vessel data that helps Beijing find submarines also helps it lay and protect undersea cables - and, in a conflict, know where to sever an adversary's.

Gray Zone, Quarantine or Blockade Prelude?

Analysts describe the operations as "gray zone" tactics: actions that fall short of an act of war but steadily assert control over contested waters. Taiwan's coast guard warned of an increasingly severe situation, and officials have publicly raised the possibility that Beijing could use its growing maritime presence to impose a de facto quarantine or blockade, preventing ships carrying energy or other critical supplies from entering or leaving the island's ports.

The escalation has been incremental and unmistakable. In June, Chinese law enforcement conducted its first patrol in waters east of Taiwan. Earlier this month, Beijing announced "traffic control measures" for the Taiwan Strait as Typhoon Dolphin swept through the region, a move that effectively asserted management authority over the waterway. "All of these developments are connected," Martinson said. "They represent a clear escalation in Beijing's efforts to exercise jurisdiction over the waters surrounding Taiwan, putting pressure on the country's leadership and undermining its sovereignty and sovereign rights."

Taipei's Answer: A US$7.6 Billion Drone Budget

Taiwan's legislature answered the record deployments on Thursday by approving a US$7.6 billion budget for locally made drones, part of a broader push to build up the island's defense industry as the threat from Beijing grows. Lawmakers have ramped up military spending in recent years and are pushing to produce more equipment and ammunition domestically, reducing reliance on imported weapons.

The drone program is designed around asymmetric warfare: swarms of relatively inexpensive unmanned systems that could complicate any amphibious assault or blockade, and that are far harder for Beijing to neutralize with a single strike than a few large warships or airbases. The budget approval came just hours after the CGA data showing the July record was made public, underscoring how quickly the maritime pressure is shaping Taiwan's procurement decisions.

What to Watch For

Tokyo is watching the same charts. The presence of a Chinese research vessel inside Japan's EEZ, escorted by a maritime militia fishing boat, is precisely the kind of incremental provocation that has driven Japan's own coast guard expansion and its push toward a more muscular defense posture under the National Security Strategy. Japan's Type 12 surface-to-ship missile upgrade and its new emphasis on stand-off strike capabilities are, in part, answers to the same gray-zone playbook now on display around Taiwan.

The key question is whether the record pace of July and August becomes the new normal. Chinese government vessels are not warships, but the distinction matters less every month, as the research ships map the seabed, the coast guard asserts jurisdiction, and the militia provides escorts. If the September figures set yet another record, the gray zone around Taiwan will have become, in practice, a Chinese lake - with the Ryukyu Trench as its southern boundary and Japan's sea lanes as the immediate downstream risk.

For now, the pattern is clear: Beijing is building a detailed submarine-warfare picture of the waters around Taiwan and Japan, one survey at a time, and daring the region to respond.

By Kenji Tanaka, Staff Writer

This article was produced with AI-assisted research and editorial support. Sources: Taipei Times/AFP, South China Morning Post, Hong Kong Free Press, Firstpost.