Quebec election 2026: Trade war reshapes campaign priorities

Quebec election campaign opens with trade war eclipsing sovereignty debate

MONTREAL — Charles Rousseau has always believed in Quebec independence, but when the province goes to the polls on Oct. 5, the 27-year-old master's student says sovereignty will not be his top priority.

Speaking outside a sovereigntist-themed coffee shop in Montreal on Thursday, the day after the election campaign officially began, Rousseau said the ongoing tariff war with the United States and negotiations with President Donald Trump are dominating political discourse in the province.

"What has really dominated political discourse lately is inflation, the cost of living," he said. "I get the impression that the sovereignty movement is losing some of its momentum as well. So, people are clearly concerned about this whole conflict."

Rousseau added that despite having two parties making sovereignty a top priority, he is "not interested in the proposals currently on the table."

Trade war shifts electoral calculus

Rousseau's concerns appear to reflect a shift in political messaging already emerging after the first day of the campaign. For months, it seemed the provincial election could hinge on the question of a sovereignty referendum. Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who has led in public opinion polls since 2023, promised a referendum in his first term if elected.

But the trade war with the United States is changing electoral priorities, experts say. A report released by National Bank a few days before the campaign began found that Quebec faces the highest effective tariff rate on exports among all Canadian provinces.

The situation is already placing St-Pierre Plamondon on the defensive, as his opponents argue it would be unwise to separate while Trump is threatening Canadian sovereignty.

"My opponent is named Donald Trump," incumbent premier Christine Fréchette said Thursday after dissolving the legislature. "He's the real adversary."

PQ leader urges voters not to let Trump 'hijack' election

With polls showing that only about 30 per cent of Quebecers would vote for sovereignty in a referendum, St-Pierre Plamondon may need to appeal to federalist voters to win the election. A week before the campaign began, he announced that a PQ government would not call a referendum until Trump is out of office in 2029.

Speaking to journalists Thursday, the PQ leader said his party would propose the best platform to weather the economic uncertainty caused by the trade war. But he urged Quebecers not to let Trump dictate the outcome of the election.

"Do not allow the Trump administration's tactics to rob us of this important debate. Do not allow our election to be hijacked," he said. "At the end of the day, it is up to us, the people of Quebec, to decide our future and our destiny."

Ruba Ghazal, parliamentary leader of the leftist sovereigntist party Québec solidaire, promised to consult Quebecers on the question of sovereignty if elected.

"It doesn't depend on Trump or any other thing that is happening in the world," she said.

Analysts see parallels to 2025 federal election

Political analysts believe Trump's influence will be felt throughout the campaign after trade negotiations fell through last week. Danielle Pilette, a political science professor at the Université du Québec à Montréal, compares the current period to the 2025 federal election, when Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives seemed poised to win a majority government.

Canadians then rallied behind Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberals in the face of tariff talks. Carney also positioned himself as a defender of the French language and Quebec culture after the latest rounds of negotiations with the U.S., which Pilette believes could benefit Fréchette as the incumbent.

"We can see that public opinion is highly volatile in this unpredictable context," she said. "In the face of that, the safe bet at federal level was the Liberals in the last election, whilst the safe bet in Quebec for this election seems to be the (governing Coalition Avenir Québec)."

According to Université de Montréal political science professor Evelyne Brie, support for Quebec sovereignty briefly went up but quickly diminished after Trump was elected for a second term.

"I think it was a real disadvantage for the PQ in terms of timing, because Trump seems to have had a deterrent effect on grassroots sovereignty ever since he was sworn in," she said. "People aren't exactly thrilled to have an additional source of uncertainty if (the PQ) might be holding a referendum."

Like Pilette, Brie says instability typically benefits those who are already in power.

Fréchette faces different challenge than Carney

But Stéphane Paquin, director of a group for studies and research on international affairs and Quebec, says there are significant differences between Fréchette and Carney. He notes Carney was new on the political scene and gained credibility with his background in finance and policy.

Fréchette inherited the Coalition Avenir Québec when former premier François Legault resigned after the party tanked in the polls.

"It's easy to contrast Justin Trudeau and Mark Carney as a significant change," said Paquin. "Christine Fréchette doesn't have the same aura of competence as Mark Carney, and it's going to be difficult for her to set herself apart from François Legault."

Daniel Turp, a Université de Montréal law professor who represented both the Bloc Québécois and the PQ in Ottawa and Quebec City, agrees with Paquin. He points out that the PQ is still a favourite in the polls, with the Coalition Avenir Québec and Liberals neck-and-neck for second place.

Turp believes talks around Canadian sovereignty in the face of American threats could even benefit sovereigntist parties.

"What's interesting is that sovereignty is clearly becoming an important issue," he said. "I reckon that Paul St-Pierre Plamondon could say the same thing during the campaign, that if sovereignty is so important for Canada, it's important for Quebec too."

An unpredictable campaign ahead

Nonetheless, all four analysts agree that anything can happen on election day, as polls have shown most Quebecers are open to changing their voting intention.

"It's going to be the most interesting campaign in recent history," said Turp.

For voters like Rousseau, the decision will come down to more than just the sovereignty question. The trade war, the cost of living and the broader economic uncertainty are all weighing on the minds of Quebecers as they prepare to head to the ballot box.

The campaign is expected to run for just over five weeks, with the province choosing its next government on Oct. 5. As the trade war continues to evolve and negotiations with the U.S. remain unresolved, the interplay between economic concerns and the sovereignty debate will likely define the weeks ahead.

Tags: Quebec election, 2026, trade war, Donald Trump, sovereignty, Parti Québécois, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, Christine Fréchette, Coalition Avenir Québec, tariffs, referendum, Quebec voters, campaign, U.S.-Canada relations

This article was produced with AI-assisted research and editorial support. Sources: Global News (globalnews.ca).

By Alex Thompson, Staff Writer