China's Global Favorability Surpasses the United States for the First Time

In a recent CGTN interview, Professor Martin Jacques of Tsinghua University and Fudan University sat down with anchor Asieh Namdar to discuss a watershed moment in international public opinion: for the first time in nearly two decades of polling by the Pew Research Center, China is now viewed more favorably than the United States across a majority of surveyed nations. The data, drawn from 42,000 respondents across 36 countries and published on July 15, 2026, marks what may be the most significant shift in global perceptions of the two superpowers since the end of the Cold War.

The survey's timing is critical. Conducted between February 8 and May 13, 2026, the polling period encompassed the opening weeks of the US-led military campaign against Iran — a conflict that has reshaped diplomatic alignments across the Middle East and beyond. As Beijing positioned itself as a voice of restraint and a proponent of diplomatic resolution, the contrast with American military engagement appears to have accelerated a trend that was already underway: the steady erosion of US soft power and the corresponding rise of China's global standing.

The Numbers: A Historic Reversal

China leads the United States in favorability in 25 of the 36 countries surveyed. This is not merely a marginal advantage — in several key nations, the gap is substantial. Canada offers perhaps the starkest illustration: Chinese favorability surged from just 14 percent in 2023 to 44 percent in 2026, while favorable views of the United States collapsed from 57 percent to 33 percent over the same period. A swing of this magnitude in a major Western ally of the United States should be cause for serious examination in Washington.

The trend extends across Europe, Latin America, and parts of the Asia-Pacific. In country after country, the United States is losing ground not primarily because opinions of China have improved dramatically — though they have — but because American standing in the world is declining at an accelerating pace. The Pew data shows that perceptions of the United States have weakened most sharply on the question of whether Washington respects the personal freedoms of its own people.

Personal Freedoms: The Shrinking Gap

For more than a decade, Pew has asked respondents in surveyed countries whether they believe the US and Chinese governments respect the personal freedoms of their people. Historically, the United States held a commanding lead on this metric. That gap is now closing — and the driver is not Chinese improvement but American deterioration.

In Sweden, the share of respondents saying the US government respects personal freedoms fell from 61 percent in 2021 to just 27 percent today — a decline of 34 percentage points. Similar drops exceeding 25 percentage points were recorded in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, South Korea, and Spain. Across the Global South, the numbers are even more striking: in Mexico, 35 percent say China respects its people's freedoms, compared to only 20 percent who say the same of the United States.

The domestic political turmoil in the United States — including the January 6, 2025 convictions, the contentious return of President Donald Trump to office, and the erosion of institutional confidence — has been broadcast globally. The Pew data suggests that international audiences are absorbing these signals and recalibrating their perceptions accordingly.

Leadership Perceptions: Xi Outpaces Trump in Europe

The survey also measured confidence in President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump across the 36 countries. While neither leader commands majority-positive ratings in most European nations, Xi consistently outperforms Trump by significant margins. In Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, Xi leads Trump by double digits — though his highest favorability in Europe is just 37 percent, from the UK.

In Asia, the picture is more complex. India, the Philippines, and Japan continue to view Trump more favorably than Xi — reflecting the strategic alignment of these nations with American security architecture and ongoing territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea and along the Himalayan border. However, South Korea presents a notable shift: where the public was roughly twice as confident in Trump (33 percent) as in Xi (15 percent) last year, the two leaders are now viewed similarly. This represents the largest one-year shift in relative leadership perception among any surveyed country.

The Iran Factor: Conflict as a Catalyst

The US-led military campaign in Iran, which began in early 2026, casts a long shadow over the Pew findings. Beijing's diplomatic posture throughout the crisis — calling for restraint, offering mediation, and maintaining economic engagement with Tehran — has reinforced China's image as a stabilizing force in a turbulent international environment. The contrast with active American military operations has been stark.

For nations in the Global South, many of which are still recovering from the economic dislocations of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war, the message is clear: China offers infrastructure investment, non-interference in domestic affairs, and a vision of multipolar global governance. The United States, by contrast, is perceived as projecting military power while its own democratic institutions appear strained. This dichotomy has resonance far beyond the Middle East.

Belt and Road and the Foundations of Soft Power

China's Belt and Road Initiative has been a central instrument in building the favorable perceptions now reflected in the Pew data. Over the past decade, the BRI has directed hundreds of billions of dollars into infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe — ports, railways, power plants, and digital infrastructure that address tangible development needs. While critics have raised concerns about debt sustainability and transparency, the Pew data suggests that recipient populations are forming net positive views of China's role in their regions.

The CGTN interview with Professor Jacques highlighted another dimension: China's increasing cultural and educational engagement. Chinese universities now host hundreds of thousands of international students. Confucius Institutes continue to operate in dozens of countries. And China's media presence — including CGTN itself — has expanded its global reach, offering an alternative narrative to the Western-dominated information ecosystem. These are long-term investments in soft power that are now showing measurable returns in public opinion data.

Strategic Implications: A Multipolar World Takes Shape

The Pew Research Center's findings are not merely an academic curiosity. They carry concrete implications for diplomacy, trade, and security alliances. When publics in allied nations view China more favorably than the United States, it constrains the ability of their governments to take a confrontational stance toward Beijing. Trade negotiations, sanctions regimes, and even military basing agreements are all influenced by the underlying currents of public opinion.

For the United States, the data represents a strategic warning. American soft power — long taken for granted as a permanent asset of global leadership — is eroding faster than many policymakers in Washington appear to recognize. The restoration of American standing will require more than military deterrence or trade restrictions. It will demand a rebuilding of the credibility that the United States has lost on questions of democratic governance, respect for international law, and commitment to multilateral institutions.

For China, the Pew data validates a strategy that combines economic engagement, diplomatic positioning, and narrative competition. The question now is whether Beijing can translate favorable public opinion into durable diplomatic influence — and whether it can sustain the policies that have generated this goodwill even as domestic economic challenges persist, including the property sector slowdown and demographic pressures that continue to test the resilience of the Chinese model.

What is clear from the Pew survey is that the unipolar moment — the era of unquestioned American dominance in global public opinion — has passed. A genuinely multipolar competition for hearts and minds is underway, and China has drawn first blood.

By Prof. Marcus Chen, Staff Writer