US-China Track 1.5 Talks Offer 'Normal Stability' Formula Ahead of Xi Summit

A 'Normal Stability' Formula for the World's Most Consequential Ties

BEIJING - China and the United States should aim for "normal stability with controllable disagreements" in their relationship, a senior Chinese official told the third US-China Track 1.5 Dialogue, a two-day semi-official gathering that ended in Beijing on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. The formula, proposed by Liu Haixing, head of the Chinese Communist Party's International Department, arrives weeks before Chinese President Xi Jinping's first state visit to the United States since 2015, a trip both sides are still scrambling to prepare.

Tags: China, United States, Track 1.5 Dialogue, Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Liu Haixing, diplomacy, Beijing, Washington, Asia Society, Kevin Rudd, bilateral ties, summit, geopolitics, Japan

What Liu Haixing Said: Rejecting Zero-Sum Logic

Speaking at the third session of the dialogue, a mechanism established in 2023 to bridge official diplomacy and non-governmental exchanges, Liu urged both countries to expand the "pie" of shared interests to achieve what he called positive stability anchored in cooperation. "Both sides should reject zero-sum games to achieve healthy stability with well-managed competition, and seek common ground while bridging differences to achieve normal stability with controllable disagreements," Liu said, according to the South China Morning Post.

The formulation is notable for what it attempts to reconcile. It acknowledges that US-China competition is now a permanent feature of the bilateral landscape, yet insists the relationship can still be managed through dialogue rather than confrontation. For analysts who track the relationship, the phrase "controllable disagreements" is an explicit recognition that the two powers will not resolve their core differences on technology, Taiwan or the South China Sea any time soon - only that they should prevent those differences from spiraling into open conflict.

Who Was in the Room: The US Delegation's Message

The dialogue brought together roughly 40 Chinese and foreign representatives from local government, think tanks and universities, along with members of the US strategic and business communities. The US delegation was led by John Thornton, co-chairman of the Asia Society, and included Kevin Rudd, the Asia Society's chief executive and former Australian prime minister, and Craig Allen, president of the Washington-based US-China Business Council.

Also present were American businessman Craig Mundie, cancer prevention specialist Otis Brawley, Amy Celico, executive director of Tsinghua University's Schwarzman Scholars programme, and American venture capitalist Gary Rieschel. The US side described bilateral ties as being "at a unique juncture" and singled out the rapport between presidents Xi and Donald Trump as the "most vital and valuable component" of the relationship, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.

The delegation was quoted as urging both sides to "deepen dialogue, foster political mutual trust and advance cooperation across trade, cultural exchanges, healthcare, artificial intelligence and food security, while properly managing differences and together addressing global challenges." The list is significant because it maps the terrain where Washington still sees room for practical cooperation even as the strategic competition intensifies.

Track 1.5 Explained: A Middle Ground That Keeps Talking

Track 1.5 dialogues sit between official government-to-government talks and informal academic exchanges - the "1.5" referring to one official track and one unofficial track meeting in the same room. The first US-China Track 1.5 Dialogue took place by video conference in 2023, followed by a second session in Beijing in 2024, when roughly 30 Chinese and Americans from governments, universities and think tanks agreed that the two sides should adhere to "peaceful coexistence and avoid conflict and confrontation."

That theme echoed again this year after Trump travelled to Beijing in May for a summit, during which Xi said the two leaders had "agreed on a new vision of building a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability." The Track 1.5 format has thus become a running gauge of whether the spirit of the May summit survives contact with the day-to-day realities of sanctions, export controls and military posturing.

The September Summit: High Stakes, Thin Deliverables

The dialogue comes just weeks ahead of Xi's trip to the United States, his first state visit since 2015. Both sides are preparing for the summit in September, but Beijing has appeared frustrated with the Trump administration's lack of planning and coordination, with little progress made on deliverables for the meeting, the South China Morning Post reported.

In separate talks with some of the US group on Monday, Wang Huning, China's fourth-ranked official and chairman of the country's top political advisory body, said China stood ready to "enhance correct mutual perceptions and respect each other's core interests." Wang said the two countries would strengthen cooperation across various sectors, "properly manage differences and build a constructive, strategically stable China-US relationship." Chinese vice foreign minister Ma Zhaoxu also met some of the dialogue participants on Monday.

The flurry of high-level meetings around the dialogue signals how much Beijing wants the September summit to reset the tone of the relationship, even if the substance remains thin. A state visit of this scale requires months of advance work on everything from the joint statement to the banquet guest list; the apparent absence of that groundwork is itself a diplomatic signal.

Frictions That Test the Formula

Since the May summit, a series of confrontations has tested the stability both sides claim to want. On Monday, six months into the US conflict with Iran, Washington announced fresh sanctions on entities, individuals and vessels - including some tied to mainland China and Hong Kong - to raise economic pressure on Tehran. Beijing criticised the move, called for de-escalation and vowed to "take all necessary measures" to safeguard its rights and interests.

In July, Washington expanded its Uyghur Forced Labour Prevention Act entity list by targeting dozens of Chinese firms, while simultaneously banning imports and sales of new foreign robotics and power inverters - two industries dominated by Chinese manufacturers. Beijing retaliated by sanctioning seven US entities and tightening export controls on drones and related technology.

These tit-for-tat measures are precisely the kind of escalation that the "normal stability" formula is designed to contain. The question is whether a semi-official dialogue, however well attended, can influence the pace of an election-year administration in Washington that has shown little appetite for policy coordination with Beijing on the details.

The Japan Angle: An Ally Watching From the Sidelines

For Japan, the stakes in the US-China Track 1.5 process are direct. Tokyo is Washington's principal treaty ally in Asia and watches every signal from Beijing about the terms of US-China stability, because the terms determine the room Japan has to manage its own relationship with China - one that mixes deep economic interdependence with unresolved disputes in the East China Sea.

The presence of Kevin Rudd, an Australian, at the head of the US-side delegation underscores how the US-China relationship is never purely bilateral: Australia, Japan, South Korea and the members of ASEAN all calibrate their positions based on the temperature between Washington and Beijing. The "normal stability" formula, if it holds, gives Tokyo and other regional capitals a more predictable environment in which to pursue their own hedges and partnerships.

Japanese officials and business leaders will also watch the September summit for signs of concrete progress on issues that affect Japan directly: the pace of US export controls on advanced chips, the fate of the Biden-era semiconductor alliance that Japan signed into, and whether Washington's trade demands on Beijing spill over into the broader regional supply chain. The Track 1.5 list of cooperation areas - trade, healthcare, artificial intelligence, food security - overlaps heavily with the agenda Japan itself has been pursuing with China through separate channels.

What to Watch For

The immediate test is the September summit. Watch for three things: first, whether the two sides announce any deliverables at all, given Beijing's complaints about preparation; second, whether the "constructive, strategically stable" language from May survives into the final joint statement; and third, how Washington's continuing sanctions on Iran-linked Chinese entities interact with the summit agenda in real time.

For the wider region, the more durable question is whether Track 1.5-style engagement becomes a standing feature of US-China relations - a permanent firebreak against miscalculation. Japan, Australia and South Korea all have reasons to hope it does. A relationship that produces "normal stability with controllable disagreements" is not a warm peace, but for the Asia-Pacific it is a far more predictable foundation than the alternatives, and predictability is what markets, militaries and foreign ministries across the region are built to plan around.

By Kenji Tanaka, Staff Writer

This article was produced with AI-assisted research and editorial support. Sources: South China Morning Post, Global Times.