Nigeria's PDP Faces Existential Crisis as Factional War Threatens Its Future in January Election

Nigeria's PDP Faces Existential Crisis as Factional War Threatens Its Future in January Election

A Party on the Brink

Once the undisputed giant of Nigerian politics, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) now finds itself on the brink of extinction. A question hanging over the campaign for January's general election, which officially kicked off this week, is whether the PDP can survive. A factional struggle that has ended up in the courts over who exactly is in charge could end up rendering it irrelevant at the ballot box.

It is a remarkable fall for the party, founded in 1998, which appeared impregnable after the end of military rule a year later - so much so that its chairman boasted in 2008 that it would govern for six decades. For 16 years, it controlled the presidency - in the shape of Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua and then Goodluck Jonathan - and the vast majority of the country's 36 states.

The 2015 Seismic Shock

The 2015 federal election was a seismic shock. The PDP lost the presidential vote to Muhammadu Buhari and the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC) - a coalition of opposition parties and disgruntled former members. Goodluck Jonathan handed power over to Buhari after losing the election - a defeat that started the PDP's decline.

Thrust into the political wilderness, the party's national leaders were bewildered - familiar with the trappings of federal power, they had to work out what to do in opposition. This was the beginning of the end, according to political analyst Ishaq Buhari. "They were a party that was so used to power, being in opposition was a new challenge they struggled with from the start," he told the BBC.

2025: The Year the Foundations Crumbled

If 2015 was a major blow, 2025 was the year the party's foundations were left in ruins. It was marked by a dizzying wave of defections and bitter internal conflicts. A group of state governors switched party allegiance, which had a particularly devastating effect.

At the start of that year, the PDP still held eight states. But by December, five state governors - from Delta, Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Bayelsa and Rivers - had gone over to the ruling APC. They cited the PDP's declining viability and a desire for better co-operation with the federal government as reasons for their departure. Early this year, the PDP held three states but that is now down to zero - with the Oyo governorship slipping from the party's hands just last month.

Leadership Tussle and the Wike Factor

Internal power struggles, factionalism, insistence that power rotates through the regions and disciplinary measures have all added to the sense of disillusionment within the party. The PDP has been robbed of high-profile figures and talent, including the defection of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar last year.

The crisis was intensified by a debilitating leadership tussle. In November 2025, a faction of the party, which observers say represented the majority of members, held a contentious national convention in Ibadan, Oyo state, despite court orders attempting to stop it. The convention expelled Nyesom Wike, a prominent PDP member who is serving in President Bola Tinubu's APC-led government.

Wike, who helped found the party, heads a rival faction creating a political stand-off that has paralysed the PDP. He had controversially helped the APC win Rivers state in the last presidential election, leading to accusations that he had betrayed the PDP. But in the eyes of the law, the faction that he heads is the legitimate party. This means that it has been able to submit its slate of presidential and parliamentary candidates to the electoral commission, leaving the rival faction without any representatives on the ballot.

Die-Hard Loyalists and Glimmers of Hope

Despite the chaos, some die-hard loyalists remain optimistic. Politician and staunch PDP member Aminu Adamu, part of the anti-Wike faction, believes a return to its former glory is possible. He cites examples from Thailand and Argentina, where parties have bounced back after years in the wilderness. "We have seen it happen before," he tells the BBC. "All we need to do is put our house in order and start to build from there. If we make all the necessary corrections, by 2032 I really think PDP can be a major force again."

Others point out that the party still has a grassroots network - essential to win and sustain power - with offices, activists, supporters and local leaders. But by 2032 it may be too late. With the party in such disarray and candidates backed by Wike on the ballot - voters are unlikely to trust them.

The Search for a Lifeline

Analyst Deji Olarenwaju believes the only thing that could save the once-mighty party is an alliance with the African Democratic Congress - now seen as the biggest opposition group - or Peter Obi's Nigeria Democratic Congress. "Because on their own they are going nowhere," he says.

For West African observers, the PDP's decline is more than a Nigerian story. It reflects a broader pattern across the region where dominant parties, once liberation movements or post-military coalitions, struggle to adapt to opposition. In Senegal, Ghana and elsewhere, the challenge of transitioning from a ruling party to a credible alternative has often proven as difficult as winning power itself. The PDP's fate will be watched closely by political parties across the continent that may one day face a similar test.

What This Means for Nigerian Democracy

The potential collapse of the PDP raises serious questions about the health of Nigeria's democracy. A robust opposition is essential for accountability, and the APC's dominance - now facing only a fragmented and weakened opposition - could lead to a one-party state in all but name. The January election will be a critical test of whether Nigeria can maintain a competitive political landscape.

For ordinary Nigerians, the party's infighting is a distraction from pressing issues like economic hardship, insecurity and unemployment. Many voters are disillusioned, seeing the PDP's internal battles as a reflection of a political class more interested in power than in serving the people. The party's decline has also opened space for new movements, but whether they can fill the void remains uncertain.

A Cautionary Tale for the Region

The PDP's trajectory offers a cautionary tale for political parties across West Africa. Success in government does not guarantee survival in opposition. Parties that fail to build strong institutions, manage internal democracy and renew their leadership risk becoming irrelevant when they lose power. The PDP's experience shows that the trappings of office can mask deep structural weaknesses that only emerge in times of crisis.

As the January election approaches, the PDP's fate will be a defining narrative. Whether it can rise from the ashes or fade into history will depend on its ability to resolve its leadership crisis and rebuild trust with voters. For now, the once-mighty party that ruled Nigeria for 16 years faces its most uncertain hour, with its future hanging in the balance.

By Amara Diop, Staff Writer

This article was produced with AI-assisted research and editorial support. Sources: BBC News.