'It can kill us': Kenyans fear impact of El Niño with floods predicted

When Agnes Shikoli points to the water‑stained wall of her modest home in Kibera, she is not just marking a personal loss; she is illustrating a growing national dread. The 62‑year‑old, whose sister died in the floods that swept through Nairobi earlier this year, says the looming El Niño feels like a death sentence for families living in makeshift houses that sit only metres from the Ngong River. Her fear is shared by many in Kenya’s informal settlements, where the combination of inadequate drainage, rapid urban growth and climate extremes creates a perfect storm of vulnerability.

El Niño’s looming threat

Forecasters warn that the 2026 El Niño could rank among the strongest on record, a judgment backed by a regional forecast that gave an 81 percent probability of a very strong event for the October‑December period. Meteorologists note that the Pacific phenomenon is now reinforced by a positive Indian Ocean dipole—sometimes called the “Indian Niño”—which together intensify rainfall across East Africa. In Kenya, the short rainy season traditionally peaks in November, and the current outlook suggests that the rains could be far heavier than usual, especially in the south.

These climatic signals echo the devastating 1997‑1998 El Niño, which triggered severe floods in Kenya and Somalia. Weather forecaster Jemima Gacheru explains that similar sea‑surface temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean are driving the present risk, raising expectations of “enhanced rainfall over several parts of the country.” While the heavy rains have not yet arrived, officials and residents alike brace for a repeat of the earlier flood season’s chaos.

Why Nairobi’s rivers are choking

The capital’s three major rivers, including the Ngong that runs through Kibera, have become conduits for waste as much as for water. Since August, volunteers in high‑visibility vests have been shovelling garbage from riverbeds under the Climate Worx programme, a presidential initiative aimed at rehabilitating Nairobi’s waterways. Their work reflects a broader effort to unclog drainage systems that have been neglected for decades.

Nairobi County disaster management chief Bramwell Simiyu stresses that blocked drains and insufficient sewage infrastructure were key factors in the high death toll after the earlier floods. He notes that the city’s drainage network was designed thirty years ago for a population of roughly 2.5 million, yet today it must serve an estimated seven million people during the day and 5.5 million at night. Simiyu estimates that a full upgrade would require up to $192 million, a sum that remains out of reach for cash‑strapped authorities.

Informal settlements on the front line

Informal settlements such as Kibera and Mathare sit precariously close to the rivers, often on the very slopes that channel floodwaters. When flash floods strike, houses built from corrugated iron and mud are easily swept away, endangering occupants and destroying possessions. Shikoli’s own home, perched a few metres from the Ngong, bears the scars of a broken television and water‑logged walls from the previous rainy season.

Simiyu warns that up to 100 000 people in low‑income neighborhoods could be at risk if the predicted rains materialise, with a moderate scenario still affecting about 20 000 individuals across roughly 5 000 households. The Nairobi River Basin Regeneration programme has identified weak regulatory enforcement and the proximity of settlements to rivers as chief contributors to this heightened vulnerability.

Human displacement looming

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has cautioned that nearly 900 000 Kenyans could be forced to leave their homes this year due to flood threats. In neighbouring Somalia, the disaster management agency estimates that 1.2 million people face similar displacement risks from both floods and drought. The scale of potential movement underscores the humanitarian dimension of the climate challenge.

Kenya’s relocation plan envisions moving affected families to 167 designated holding grounds, where stockpiles of relief food and supplies would be distributed. However, the plan hinges on “humane relocation,” a principle that remains difficult to implement amid rising poverty and limited resources. Many residents, like Shikoli, are reluctant to abandon the only shelter they can afford, even as they recognise the danger of staying put.

Economic and food security concerns

Beyond the immediate threat of drowning, the floods jeopardise livelihoods. In Somalia, the 1998 floods destroyed up to 80 percent of crops in some areas, a loss that contributed to a severe food‑security crisis. While Kenya’s current situation has not yet produced comparable agricultural damage, the United Nations’ Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) warns that El Niño‑related supply‑chain disruptions could heighten food‑insecurity risks across the region.

The potential loss of harvests, combined with the cost of rebuilding homes and infrastructure, threatens to deepen poverty in already vulnerable communities. For families like the Shikolies, whose daily existence already balances on precarious income, any setback could push them further into hardship.

Government response and challenges

President William Ruto’s administration has launched Climate Worx and the Nairobi River Basin Regeneration programme as part of its response to the looming El Niño. These initiatives focus on clearing riverbanks, improving drainage, and establishing buffer zones to protect waterways. Yet Simiyu acknowledges that without substantial investment, the measures amount to temporary fixes.

Funding remains the greatest obstacle. The estimated $192 million needed to overhaul Nairobi’s drainage network is far beyond the current fiscal capacity of both the national and city councils. As a result, many of the proposed upgrades are stalled, leaving residents to rely on community‑led clean‑up efforts and ad‑hoc relocation plans.

Looking ahead: resilience amid uncertainty

As November approaches, the exact timing and intensity of the rains remain uncertain. Residents of Kibera watch the sky with a mixture of dread and resignation, aware that the next downpour could be the one that overwhelms their fragile shelters. Meanwhile, officials continue to monitor river levels and prepare emergency response teams, hoping that early interventions can save lives.

The situation in Kenya illustrates a broader African challenge: climate extremes colliding with rapid urbanisation and chronic under‑investment in infrastructure. While the El Niño of 2026 may not yet have unleashed its full force, the preparations, warnings and community actions already underway reveal a continent striving to adapt, even as it confronts the stark reality that “it can kill us.”

This article was produced with AI-assisted research and editorial support. Reporting is based on the source material cited below. Sources: BBC News Africa; bbc.co.uk; Global1.News (13 November 2026).

By Amara Diop, Staff Writer