How fresh fighting in Tigray could spark wider conflict in Ethiopia

Fresh fighting has erupted in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, pitting the regional Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) against the national army. For residents still nursing the wounds of a two‑year war that ended in 2022, the renewed clashes revive the fear of a return to full‑scale conflict. Panic buying, disrupted internet and mobile services, and a cash‑only economy—where ATMs have been out of service for months—have compounded everyday hardship.

Escalation and Immediate Impact

The latest violence began this week, quickly spilling from Tigray into neighbouring Afar and Amhara provinces. Both sides blame the other for firing the first shot: the TPLF claims it was responding to a federal offensive that included drone strikes, while the government alleges that Tigrayan forces seized airports and attacked first. The uncertainty fuels a climate of fear, as families scramble for supplies and lose access to digital money platforms that had become essential after the banking infrastructure collapsed.

Disruptions to communications have left many without the ability to contact relatives or seek aid. In a region already grappling with a cash‑scarce environment, the loss of mobile money services threatens to deepen economic distress, especially as civil servants have not been paid and other public services continue to falter.

Historical Roots of the Conflict

The TPLF’s political journey began in the 1970s as an armed movement opposing Ethiopia’s military government. It later helped overthrow the Marxist regime in 1991 and became the dominant force within the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition that ruled for nearly three decades. Critics have long argued that the TPLF wielded disproportionate power, given that Tigrayans constitute roughly six percent of the national population.

When Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018, he dissolved the EPRDF and created the Prosperity Party, dramatically curbing the TPLF’s influence. Relations between Addis Ababa and the TPLF deteriorated, culminating in a full‑scale war in 2020 that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives, cut off Tigray from the outside world, and pushed the region to the brink of famine.

The Pretoria Agreement and Its Fragilities

In 2022, the African Union brokered the Pretoria Agreement, a peace deal that formally ended the war after nearly four years of fighting. While the accord halted large‑scale hostilities, several core issues remained unresolved, sowing the seeds for today’s flare‑up. The agreement called for a disarmament process, an interim administration appointed by Prime Minister Abiy, and a future referendum on disputed territories.

Implementation has been uneven. The government accuses the TPLF of handing over only old weapons while concealing newer arms, whereas the TPLF argues that disarmament has been incomplete on the federal side. Moreover, the interim administration was dissolved by the TPLF just before the May general election—an election that was not held in Tigray due to security concerns—leading to a vacuum in civil service salaries and public service delivery.

Territorial Dispute Over Western Tigray

One of the most contentious points concerns western Tigray, a fertile area seized by Amhara forces early in the 2020 war. Many Amhara residents contend that the territory was never rightfully part of Tigray when regional borders were redrawn after the 1991 overthrow of the military regime. The TPLF, however, demands the return of western Tigray and the repatriation of hundreds of thousands of displaced Tigrayans now living in camps across Tigray and Addis Ababa.

The government has proposed a referendum to decide the region’s fate, a suggestion the TPLF rejects as insufficient. The stalemate over western Tigray fuels mistrust and provides a flashpoint that can quickly ignite broader hostilities, especially as armed groups on both sides maintain a presence near the contested border.

The Emerging Alliance for Survival

In September, the TPLF joined six other armed movements to form the “Alliance for Survival.” This coalition includes the Amhara‑based Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army, among others. While each group harbours distinct grievances, they share a common objective: to oust Prime Minister Abiy’s government. The alliance marks a strategic shift for the TPLF, which had been politically isolated within Ethiopia for years.

Analysts warn that the alliance’s cohesion is fragile. Historical animosities—such as the rivalry between the TPLF and Fano over western Tigray—remain unresolved, and divergent long‑term goals could fracture the coalition. Nevertheless, the temporary convergence of forces has already altered the battlefield dynamics, as joint operations against federal troops have been reported in the recent clashes.

Eritrea’s Role and Regional Tensions

Eritrea, once an ally of Ethiopia during the 2020 civil war, now finds itself accused by the TPLF of supporting the rebel alliance—a claim the Eritrean government denies. The two neighbours have recently severed diplomatic ties, a rupture rooted in competing ambitions over Red Sea ports. Ethiopia, the world’s most populous land‑locked nation, lost direct access to the sea when Eritrea gained independence in 1993. Prime Minister Abiy has been vocal about acquiring Eritrea’s southern port of Assab, located roughly 60 kilometres from the border, and has hinted at using force to secure it.

These maritime aspirations heighten the stakes of the current conflict. If Ethiopia were to pursue a military push toward Assab, it could draw Eritrea deeper into the fray, potentially opening a new front that would further destabilise the Horn of Africa.

Humanitarian Consequences and Outlook

The resurgence of fighting threatens to undo the fragile recovery that followed the 2022 peace accord. Residents report drone strikes hitting schools that were allegedly used as military bases during the war, underscoring the difficulty of distinguishing civilian from combat sites. Meanwhile, the TPLF’s reported forced recruitment of young men adds another layer of human cost to an already dire situation.

With the African Union leading diplomatic efforts and calling for restraint, the path to a sustainable ceasefire remains uncertain. The unresolved issues of disarmament, governance, territorial claims, and the broader alliance’s durability will shape Ethiopia’s trajectory in the months ahead. For the people of Tigray and the surrounding regions, the immediate concern is survival amid a renewed wave of violence that threatens to plunge the nation back into the turmoil it has been striving to leave behind.

This article was produced with AI-assisted research and editorial support. Reporting is based on the source material cited below. Sources: BBC News Africa; bbc.co.uk; Global1.News (05 October 2026).

By Amara Diop, Staff Writer