Powerful House leadership chair, Stefanik poised to take on Hochul for NY Governor

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is considering a 2026 bid for governor in her home state, multiple sources close to her confirmed to Fox News Digital.

Stefanik was withdrawn from consideration as President Donald Trump’s United Nations Ambassador to shore up numbers of the House Republicans' narrow majority. She is now the chairwoman of House Republican Leadership.

Sources tell Fox News Digital that she is being encouraged to run by allies of Trump and longtime friends. Stefanik outperformed the president in her congressional district in 2016, 2020 and 2024, which one source says could be an indicator that she could do well with New York's swing voters.  The Republican won with 62% of the vote in her strongly conservative district in November.

On Wednesday, Stefanik made the case for a GOP win in New York this year when she commented on a new poll by Marist which is the latest to indicate that Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul's approval ratings are underwater with New York State voters. 

"This latest bombshell polling proves what every New Yorker already knows: that we must FIRE Kathy Hochul in 2026 to SAVE NEW YORK. Hochul is the Worst Governor in America and it’s not even close," Stefanik argued in a statement.

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Stefanik is a top Trump ally in the House and the president posted on social media Wednesday morning that "Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is GREAT!!!" 

The six-term lawmaker has $10 million cash-on-hand through her fundraising entities, and is considered popular among Republican voters in the state. Stefanik was the keynote speaker at a New York GOP event on Tuesday night.

At the time of her nomination's withdrawal, Hochul said it was a matter of holding the line in Congress.

"I have been proud to be a team player. The president knows that. He and I had multiple conversations today, and we are committed to delivering results on behalf of the American people. And as always, I'm committed to delivering results on behalf of my constituents," Stefanik said on Fox News' "Hannity" last month.

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Trump said he would work on finding a replacement pick, which has not been announced yet.

"As we advance our America First Agenda, it is essential that we maintain EVERY Republican Seat in Congress. We must be unified to accomplish our Mission, and Elise Stefanik has been a vital part of our efforts from the very beginning," the president posted to Truth Social at the time. 

"I have asked Elise, as one of my biggest Allies, to remain in Congress to help me deliver Historic Tax Cuts, GREAT Jobs, Record Economic Growth, a Secure Border, Energy Dominance, Peace Through Strength, and much more, so we can MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. With a very tight Majority, I don’t want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat. The people love Elise and, with her, we have nothing to worry about come Election Day. There are others that can do a good job at the United Nations,."

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Stefanik is far from the only well-known Republican in New York State considering a 2026 run for governor.

Rep. Mike Lawler, who's in his second term representing the state's 17th Congressional District, which covers a large swath of New York City's northern suburbs, is mulling a bid.

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"I'll make a decision at some point – middle of the year. Obviously, you know if we're going to do it, you got to get out there, and you got to campaign hard," Lawler said last week in an interview with Fox News Digital.

He added, "I haven't made a decision yet. I think, obviously, there's a number of factors in play, but you know, we're working through that right now."

Among the other Republicans weighing a gubernatorial run are Nassau County executive Bruce Blakeman, who like Stefanik is a major Trump supporter and ally. Longtime Bethany town supervisor Carl Hyde Jr. is also considering a run.

Democrats are salivating over a potential GOP gubernatorial primary in the Empire State.

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"New York’s Republican primary is set to be a nasty and vicious race to see who can be the Trumpiest – and most out of touch with New Yorkers," Democratic Governors Association spokesperson Kevin Donohoe aruged in a statement. "All three potential candidates in this race are running to bring Donald Trump’s extreme agenda of raising costs and taking away fundamental freedoms to Albany – and could not be more out of step with New York."

It's been 23 years since a Republican won a gubernatorial election in heavily blue New York State. You have to go all the way back to former Gov. George Pataki's second re-election victory in 2002.

But with Hochul's approval ratings and favorable ratings remaining in negative territory, Republicans are optimistic their losing streak will come to an end next year. The governor also faces potential, longshot Democratic primary challenges from her lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado, as well as Rep. Ritchie Torres.

Hochul, who at the time was the state’s lieutenant governor, in August 2021 was sworn in as New York’s first female governor, after three-term Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned in disgrace amid multiple scandals.

But she narrowly won a full four-year term in the 2022 gubernatorial election, defeating then-Rep. Lee Zeldin, who now steers the Environmental Protection Agency in the Trump administration.

Zeldin - who lost to Hochul by less than six and a half points - had the best performance by a GOP gubernatorial candidate in New York since Pataki's 2002 victory.

Trump lost the state to then-Vice President Kamala Harris by 13 points in last November's presidential election, but that was a 10-point improvement from his loss margin to former President Joe Biden in the 2020 election.

"What is really telling is that you have three, at least, very qualified Republican candidates looking at it," a veteran Republican strategist who works on New York State races told Fox News. "I think it shows her [Hochul's] vulnerability."

Stefanik's departure could still have an impact on House Republicans' razor-thin three-seat majority, but GOP leaders hope to be done with their plans for a massive conservative policy overhaul via the budget reconciliation process by the end of this year.

If elected governor, Stefanik would not have to leave the House until the end of December 2025.

Her vote was critical to advancing President Trump's budget framework legislation earlier this month. The bill appeared at risk of failing during a tense procedural vote last week, but Stefanik – who was among the last to cast her vote – carried it over the top, 216 to 215.

Fox News' Madeline Coggins contributed to this report.